A CONTEST between the NBL’s two bottom sides takes place in the final match of 2024. While many teams will not have the luxury to enjoy the transition into 2025 with matches on the horizon, both the Cairns Taipans and New Zealand Breakers are squarely focused on tonight’s battle to try and end the year on a high.

Cairns Taipans vs. New Zealand Breakers

Cairns Convention Centre, 7:30pm AEDT

It is a gloomy prospect for both these sides, with the season over for the North Queensland Snakes, dropping 14 on the bounce after starting the year so promisingly at 3-1. Since then, injuries have decimated the Taipans, and they find themselves not only anchored to the bottom, but requiring a complete form reversal even just to climb out of that spot.

In fact, the Taipans’ closest neighbour on the ladder is New Zealand, and the Breakers have not been in any better form. Since starting the year positively as well, the Breakers have lost their past eight to shot from a 7-3 record after 10 games to staring down the barrel of a bottom two finish with a 7-11 win-loss effort now.

As the furthest north and furthest south teams, the sides always have plenty of travel, and the Breakers will welcome in the new year up in Cairns, hopefully celebrating a victory. In the last NBL match for 2024, the Breakers can take solace from the fact they have beaten Cairns on the road in the past five games, and are facing the only other side in worse form than themselves.

The Breakers really struggle off the boards, ranking worst in the competition for rebounds conceded (37.4) while only ninth for collecting their own boards (39.1). They also rank in teh bottom two for points and assists, and are the worst three-point shooting team in the competition and second worst at conceding looks from three-point range.

That last stat could be a problem given a rare glimmer of hope for the Taipans is their three-point shooting, ranking sixth overall, and they are fifth in rebounds as well so have some weaknesses to exploit. However their ability to set up scores is poor, ranking last for assists per game (15.5) and ninth for points (83.9), so both teams have serious issues which is why they are in the bottom two rungs of the ladder.

The last time these two teams faced back on November 16 was the most recent win for the Breakers, and at that stage their form looked rock solid. Able to build a team around backcourt star Parker Jackson-Cartwright, the battle between him and Taipans’ shooter Rob Edwards will be fascinating. Jackson-Cartwright is averaging 19.9 points and shooting at 35.5 and 53.9 per cent from the three and two-point ranges, while Edwards has put up 18.9 points per game this season, with 36.5 and 43.8 percentages respectively.

Jackson-Cartwright’s ability to dime it out to teammates (6.7 per game) underpins his game and why he is regarded as one of the best facilitators in the league. He also averages 1.7 steals per game so works hadrd on defence, while Edwards has his measure in rebounds, with 4.4 per game to accompany 2.4 assists per match. However minus Jackson-Cartwright due to suspension, the Breakers will need to find other avenues to scoring.

The Breakers will rely a lot on bigs Sam Mennenga and Karim Lopez to grab boards which is the main area they have struggled in this year. Sam Waardenburg has taken care of that for the Taipans, averaging 6.9 rebounds to go with 14.8 points, while Pedro Bradshaw is providing great support in that area. Waardenburg is the only Taipans player in the Top 20 for assists, averaging 3.3 per game which is a danger sign for the team.

Ultimately both these sides have their struggles this season, but in some regards, the opposition have been able to perform stronger in those areas, which means there are a couple of ways the game could go down. If the Taipans can take control off the boards and start transition from there, then they could snap their 14-game losing streak, while if the Breakers can pressure the Taipans better than they have other sides and facilitate those scoring chances.

TIP = Cairns by 2 points