TWO SIDES that have enormous potential, but have also had some serious lows this season, Sydney Kings and South East Melbourne Phoenix will tip off for the first NBL game of 2025. As it stands, the Kings are ahead of the Phoenix, but the gap – which was considerably larger for most of the season, is now down to just one game in a log-jam of sides between third and sixth chasing the top two.

Sydney Kings vs. South East Melbourne Phoenix

Qudos Bank Arena, 7:30pm AEDT

Both these teams will be keen for a win, with the Kings’ up-and-down of late with coach Brian Goorjian not just metaphorically crying out for a “second guard” to support Jaylen Adams, but outright saying it in press conferences. His wish looks to be granted this week according to ESPN’s Olgun Uluc who reported on Monday that the Kings would sign a backcourt player “within the week”. Though nothing has been announced as of yet, expect something in the next 24-48 hours.

What the super coach has on hand is still damn good, though a loss at home to Adelaide drove the dagger in further and the pressure ramped up for that support. It was the 36ers’ second consecutive loss after three wins on the bounce prior to Christmas, and now they have a must-win game against a Phoenix side that is moving up the ladder.

The Phoenix went from dangerous to outright incredible on New Year’s Eve, upsetting ladder leaders Illawarra by five points, the second time in a month they have done it. While the Hawks have been taking care of business with everyone else, the Phoenix keep winning, and they have eight of the past 11 since the start of November. These two sides have not played since November 8, where the Kings won at home by five points, but plenty has changed since then.

Sydney has struggled to score like a contender this year, which has been a thorn in the Kings’ side. They have also conceded the second most rebounds in the competition, which immediately spells trouble. The Phoenix on the other hand are well balanced across the board, but the Kings’ defence when it comes to opposition shooting can stifle sides – ranked second for least points conceded and three-point percentage as well as the best team for opposition field goal percentage.

The Phoenix have had more than their fair share of issues this season, sacking coach Mike Kelly after a horror start to the year, but the likes of Matt Hurt (20.1 points, 6.8 rebounds) and Jordan Hunter (11.3 points, 6.7 rebounds) loom as headaches for the Kings to try and stop off the boards. The all-round Nathan Sobey will be another three-point shooting option with Hurt and former King, Derrick Walton Jr, but the previously mentioned perimeter defence from the home side will at least put them to the test.

Adams is the star for the Kings, and a player to build a championship roster around. He put up an enormous 41 points last time out, and is averaging 17.4 points, 4.1 rebounds, 6.3 assists and 2.0 steals. He shoots at 38 per cent from long-range – with two makes per game on average – as well as 41 per cent in total from the field. Adams will team up with Kouat Noi from the arc, while former NBL MVP Xavier Cooks (16.0 points, 8.7 rebounds, 4.0 assists and 1.2 blocks) is a match-winner. He and Cameron Oliver (11.8 points, 6.5 rebounds from 20.4 minutes on court) will provide the size and are key to quelling the Phoenix bigs.

TIP = South East Melbourne Phoenix by 8.