EVERYTHING comes down to the final round with four teams fighting out for one spot in the Victorian Netball League (VNL) finals series. A double chance is still up for offer between the second and third placed teams, but the top three are settled in, while fourth must win in order to starve off three challengers still in with a chance of making it.

There are two huge games that are finals-defining tonight, with Melbourne University Lightning taking on the Southern Saints. The Lightning sits fourth with nine wins from 17 matches, and a percentage of 101.91. The Lightning is in the box seat for fourth spot as it currently holds a two-point lead on its rivals.

If the Lightning gets up in that clash, they will secure fourth and all other results are irrelevant in that scenario. However if the Saints can cause an upset – sitting eighth with a percentage of 95.9 – then it will certainly knock the Lightning out of finals.

The reason for that is because the fifth and sixth placed teams both play off in North East Blaze and Hawks Netball. Blaze’s recent draw hurts as their percentage of 103.25 would have them above the Lightning. However a win against the Hawks and a loss to the Lightning secures that spot, while the Hawks’ percentage is also higher than the Lightning’s.

The other team that can possibly squeeze into fourth but needs a lot of luck is Casey Demons, and they have very little luck, taking on the rampaging City West Falcons. The Falcons have only dropped one game all season with a whopping percentage of 135.33, 10 points clear on top of the table. If Casey can win by a margin to catch up to the Hawks – if they win – or the Blaze – if the Hawks and Blaze draw, while the Lightning lose – then the Demons will sneak into fourth.

That is a lot of ifs, and the Falcons are likely to put the result to bed given their form this season. Instead, they will await to see which one of Geelong Cougars and Boroondara Express they face. The Cougars will be similarly annoyed by the draw to the Blaze, with a win in that game giving them a four-point buffer instead of their current predicament of two.

However a victory against the ninth placed Peninsula Waves will be enough to get the job done for the double chance, and considering the Waves are 2-15 this season, it seems unlikely that the south east side will cause an upset. Similarly, third placed Boroondara Express face off against last placed Ariels, who will take home the wooden spoon unless they crush the Express.

The action begins at 7pm, with the Cougars and Waves which will likely see second place locked up. The Lightning hit the court at 8:20pm, which will determine whether or not the remaining games are dead rubbers or live. If the Saints get up, it is game on for Hawks Netball and North East Blaze, while a Lightning victory means it is game over.

VICTORIAN NETBALL LEAGUE ROUND 18 FIXTURE

Wednesday at State Netball Centre

Geelong Cougars vs Peninsula Waves

Hawks Netball vs North East Blaze

Southern Saints vs Melbourne University Lightning

City West Falcons vs Casey Demons

Boroondara Express vs Ariels