AFTER a tumultuous year with the players having to negotiate a global pandemic, limited events and a five-month break in between tournaments, the top eight fit players in the world will descend on London this week for the start of the 2020 ATP Finals. For those that do not know, the ATP Finals is for the best of the best, an invite-only tournament of the eight top-ranked players on Tour at year’s end. Whilst world number five Roger Federer ruled himself out mid-year after going in for knee surgery, the list still remains illustrious with two first-time players who have had ripping seasons.

The eight players are sort into two groups which this year are named Tokyo 1970 and London 2020 marking the 51st year since the first event was held back in Japan in 1970. In this preview we take a look at all eight players and whether or not they can take out the huge $5 million USD prize money.

GROUPS:

Group Tokyo 1970
[1] Novak Djokovic
[4] Daniil Medvedev
[7] Alexander Zverev
[9] Diego Schwartzman

Group London 2020
[2] Rafael Nadal
[3] Dominic Thiem
[6] Stefanos Tsitsipas
[8] Andrey Rublev

PLAYERS:

Novak Djokovic (Serbia)

The world number one will always be favoured to win the event, coming in as favourite having successfully claimed five previous ATP Finals titles. A win at the 2020 event would see the Serbian level the injured Federer on a record six ATP Finals titles, surpassing the great Pete Sampras and Ivan Lendl on five apiece. Djokovic has surprisingly not won a title since 2015 which might shock a few people given his dominance on the ATP Tour in that time, coming runner-up in 2016 to Andy Murray, and then in 2017 to Alexander Zverev. He did not even make the semis here last year in an even bigger shock result.

Rafael Nadal (Spain)

The world number two King of Clay has never won an ATP Finals title, which is very surprising considering his Grand Slam equal-record of 19 majors. Whilst his dominance on clay has been well documented, Nadal is not nearly as effective on hard court, let alone indoor hard court, and he has come runner-up twice. Nadal lost to Federer in 2010 and Djokovic in 2013 as his two finals appearances. This has traditionally not been a great event for him and he will be hoping to reverse that trend.

Dominic Thiem (Austria)

Like Nadal, Thiem is a traditional clay courter but as he has shown over the past 18 months, he can also get it done on hard court, reaching the Australian Open final and winning the US Open title this year. The indoor hard courts should present no fear for the Austrian, who reached the final here last year, but went down to eventual winner Stefanos Tsitsipas, who he will face in the group stage. Thiem has a tough group, but they are all tough matches, so he will need to be at his best.

Daniil Medvedev (Russian)

The only player entering the event with a winning record, the fourth ranked player has the momentum behind him after a disappointing 2020 by his standards. He is one of four players here who is yet to reach an ATP Finals decider, and in fact yet to win a match at this event, losing all three group matches on debut last year despite coming in as the fourth ranked player there as well. Winning form over Zverev at Paris Masters which is also indoor hard court should give him confidence here.

Stefanos Tsitsipas (Greece)

The fifth ranked player in the absence of Roger Federer, Tsitsipas has a real chance to go back-to-back given his group. The Greek talent won the title last year in remarkable fashion, losing to Nadal on the final day of the round robin matches, making it through then taking down Federer and Thiem to claim the title on debut. If he can go back-to-back from as many ATP Finals events, then watch out in the future as he looks to build a serious end-of-year CV against the world’s best.

Alexander Zverev (Germany)

The world number seven will be back for another year after claiming the title in 2018 and then reaching the semi-finals of the event last year. He knocked off both Nadal and Medvedev in his group, before losing back-to-back matches against eventual finalists Tsitsipas and Thiem to bow out at the penultimate stage. He is in ripping form winning two titles and reaching a final in his past three events, so it is hard to fault his form and if he can turn around his Paris Masters loss to Medvedev, he is a real shot.

Andrey Rublev (Russia)

Definitely the dark horse in the event given his form. Rublev has a real well-rounded game and over the 2020 season, he made sure he rose up to join Medvedev inside the top 10 after injuries derailed his career in the early days. He won a season-record 40 wins and five titles this year and throughly deserved his place at this event. He might be a bit raw compared to the other players, but Tsitsipas and Zverev both won their ATP Titles on debut at the event, so anything is possible for the eighth ranked Russian.

Diego Schwartzman (Argentina)

The feel-good story of the tournament, the last possible qualification place went to the diminutive Argentinian who is just an honest battler. He had a really good year in 2020 and you cannot knock some of his form this year, beating Nadal for the first time in 11 tries, and finishing with a 25-12 record. Can Schwartzman win here? It would be the biggest upset in ATP Finals history if it happened, but the Argentinian will not leave anything out on the court.

HEAD-TO-HEADS:

TOKYO 1970:

Djokovic has a 4-2 head-to-head over Medvedev, a 3-2 record over Zverev and a 5-0 record over Schwartzman. On indoor hard court, Djokovic is 1-0 against Medvedev, 1-1 against Zverev and is yet to play Schwartzman on the surface.

Medvedev trails Djokovic as above, and has a 2-5 record against Zverev, though a 4-0 record over Schwartzman. On indoor hard court, Medvedev has a 1-2 record against Zverev, and a 2-0 record over Schwartzman. Zverev has a 2-2 record against Schwartzman, but both his wins have come on indoor hard court.

Novak Djokovic 12-4 / 2-1
Daniil Medvedev 8-9 / 3-3
Alexander Zverev 9-7 / 5-2
Diego Schwartzman 2-11 / 0-4

LONDON 2020:

Nadal has a 9-5 record over Thiem, a 5-1 record over Tsitsipas and a 1-0 record over Rublev. On indoor hard court, Nadal has not played Thiem or Rublev on the surface, and has a 1-0 record over Tsitsipas – here last year – on the surface.

Thiem trails Nadal as above, has a 4-3 record over Tsitsipas, and a 2-2 record with Rublev. On indoor hard court, Thiem trails Tsitsipas 0-1 – the Final here last year – and 1-1 with Rublev. In the last matchup, Tsitsipas and Rublev have a 2-2 record, while Tsitsipas is 1-0 on indoor hard court.

Rafael Nadal 15-6 / 1-0
Dominic Thiem 11-14 / 1-2
Stefanos Tsitsipas 6-11 / 2-1
Andrey Rublev 4-5 / 1-2

PREDICTIONS:

TOKYO 1970:

The easiest prediction is Schwartzman not winning a game. The Argentinian will make life difficult for the trio, but it is hard to see him getting up in any of the matches unless Medevev’s form at ATP Finals, or Zverev’s inconsistent serving comes back. Djokovic is the obvious choice to top the group, but both his opponents are coming in with great form and more tennis under their belt. A shock loss to Lorenzo Sonego last start will have hurt the Serbian, though he had one eye on this tournament anyway. The rematch between Medvedev and Zverev will be a cracker. The latter is one of the best on this surface, he could win all the games, or at least the two to qualify.

Prediction: Djokovic and Zverev to advance.

LONDON 2020:

This group is much harder to predict. The two best players are not overly favoured on this surface, though Thiem did reach the final here last year. Nadal has never won a title, whilst Tsitsipas did, and is probably the best suited to the indoor hard courts. Rublev is in the form of his life and has nothing to lose, this is the kind of group where the two lower ranked players could genuinely advance. However, given Thiem’s progression on hard court this year with finals at the two hard court Grand Slams, the Austrian is a danger to any competitor anywhere, and he might have the edge over Rublev in this scenario. The question is whether he is fit or not coming off an injury at Paris. A fit Thiem makes it through, otherwise he bows out. A horror group for Nadal, only thing worse would have been Zverev instead of Rublev.

Prediction: Tsitsipas and Thiem (if fit) to advance.

The feeling is we might get a Djokovic-Tsitsipas final which would be exciting as Djokovic goes for the record, whilst Tsitsipas fights for back-to-back titles. If Djokovic takes on Thiem you would back the Serbian to get up, whilst the Tsitsipas and Zverev battle would be intriguing. If Zverev plays to his best (or faces Thiem) he will likely get up, which would potentially set up a rematch with Djokovic in the final, or Tsitsipas, either way it would be a huge final.

Picture: Evening Standard