Australian Open: Men’s Final preview – Dominic Thiem vs. Novak Djokovic

A 16-TIME Grand Slam winner will look to add his eighth Australian Open title when world number two, Novak Djokovic heads out onto Rod Laver Arena on Sunday to take on Austrian world number five, Dominic Thiem.

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Age: 26 | 32
Height: 185cm | 188cm
Weight: 79kg | 77kg
Ranking: 5 | 2
Titles: 16 | 77
Grand Slam Titles: 0 | 16
Best Aus Open Result: R4 (17′-18′) | W (08′, 11′-13′, 15′-16′, 19′)

There is not much to say about Djokovic that has not already been said time and time again, with the 16-time Grand Slam and seven-time Australian Open winner the standout player at Melbourne Park not just this year, but for the last decade. Nearing unbeatable in Melbourne, Djokovic just time and time again seems to rise to another level, and his performances across the first six rounds have been nothing short of exquisite. After dropping a set to Jan-Lennard Struff in the opening round, the Serbian almost gave a hint that he was human, but then proceeded to wipe opponent after opponent off the court. Not just the ones making up the numbers, but genuine contenders, with 14th seed Diego Schwartzman and 32nd seed Milos Raonic bundled out in straight sets – both of whom to that point had not dropped a set at the tournament. His latest conquest was his great rival, Roger Federer, who he downed in straight sets as well, 7-6 6-4 6-3. Despite the Swiss Master’s best efforts to level Djokovic on Australian Open titles, the world number two was just too good, stepping up when required to break at opportune times and claim the win. It was the 50th time the pair had played and now Djokovic holds a 27-23 record over Federer.

If you are doing a roll call of Djokovic’s titles, he has won at Melbourne Park six of the last nine years, with only wins to Federer (2017-18) and Stan Wawrinka (2014) since he won his second title in 2011. His first came in 2008, aged 20 which would be his first ever Grand Slam title. he and runner-up Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (22-years-old) would go on to both have stellar careers, but Djokovic is on another level with his record. Given he is younger than both Federer and Rafael Nadal, by the time their careers are all done and dusted, it is expected he will hold the most Grand Slam titles of all-time. Interestingly enough, Djokovic has never lost an Australian Open final. While he has come runner-up at the US Open on five occasions, Roland Garros three times and Wimbledon once, his record in Australian Open finals is 100 per cent, not boding well for his opponent.

The Austrian world number five, soon to be four after retaking Daniil Medvedev‘s spot in the ATP Rankings, could move up to third if he manages to cause a boilover against Djokovic. It would be a change in the rankings if Thiem can split the ‘Big Three’, bumping Federer down to fourth overall. But to do so he has to defy history and his record in Grand Slam finals is 0-2, losing the past two Roland Garros finals to Nadal – which to be fair is to be expected. Unfortunately for the 26-year-old, he runs into a beast that is just as unbeatable at Melbourne Park, and while his counter punching ways – leading the way for most receiving points on first serves throughout the Australian Open – could see him break the Serbian star, it is hard to see him forcing his way through to break often enough to claim the win. His best hope of victory is forcing his opponent into tiebreakers, though Djokovic has a career tiebreak win record of 63.3 per cent. Thiem led all-comers last year in deciding set wins, triumphing in 15 of a possible 17 matches where it went the full distance. But with Djokovic in this kind of form, just getting to the deciding set would be an achievement in itself.

With Djokovic’s record at Melbourne Park and form in mind, how does the Austrian talent find a way to knock him over? Well for starters, he has beaten him four times from 10 meetings. Granted three of those four were on clay, but the one positive from the fourth win was that it was at the ATP Finals last year, when he downed the Serbian 6-7 6-3 7-6 to come from behind and post a victory. Earlier in the year, Thiem won at Roland Garros in five unbelievable sets, winning 6-2 3-6 7-5 5-7 7-5, following on from his stunning straight sets win a year earlier at the French Open where he won 7-6 6-3 6-0. In fact, four of the past five outings between the pair have gone the way of the Austrian after Djokovic won the first five encounters. In Grand Slams, it is 2-1 the Austrian’s way, the same record for 2019. Past records mean little when it comes to Djokovic at the Australian Open. He has just been so dominant it is hard to see him losing. He thrives on the environment and just gets the job done with little fanfare and without too much trouble. While Thiem should give him his biggest challenge yet – it may go to four or even five sets – expect the world number two to bank the trophy for the eighth time in the Slam’s history.

LIVE RANKING | IF HE WINS:

Dominic Thiem: #4 (+1) | #3
Novak Djokovic: #2 (0) | #1

MATCHES:

[5] Dominic Thiem:
SF: def. [7] Alexander Zverev 3-6 6-4 7-6 7-6
QF: def. [1] Rafael Nadal 7-6 7-6 4-6 7-6
R4: def. [10] Gael Monfils 6-2 6-4 6-4
R3: def. [29] Taylor Fritz (USA) 6-2 6-4 6-7 6-4
R2: def. [WC] Alex Bolt (AUS) 6-2 5-7 6-7 6-1 6-2
R1: def. Adrian Mannarino (FRA) 6-3 7-5 6-2

[2] Novak Djokovic:
SF: def. [3] Roger Federer (SUI) 7-6 6-4 6-3
QF: def. [32] Milos Raonic (CAN) 6-4 6-3 7-6
R4: def. [14] Diego Schwartzman (ARG) 6-3 6-4 6-4
R3: def. Yoshihito Nishioka (JPN) 6-3 6-2 6-2
R2: def. [WC] Tatsuma Ito (JPN) 6-1 6-4 6-2
R1: def. Jan-Lennard Struff (GER) 7-6 6-2 2-6 6-1

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