THE question on everyone’s lips is can Novak Djokovic win an eighth title at Melbourne Park? It seems like regardless of what happens over the next two weeks history will be made. If Federer wins, he moves one more Grand Slam clear of his rivals, and levels Djokovic on seven Australian Open titles. If Nadal breaks through for his second Australian Open, then he joins Federer on a mind-boggling 20 Grand Slams. It could of course be someone different, and with the exception of Stan Wawrinka, would be a first time winner of the Australian Open, making history in the process.

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FAVOURITE:

Novak Djokovic (Serbia)
Rank: #2
Seed: #2

There is not much you need to say about the world number two who when it comes to Melbourne Park, is the undisputed favourite nearly every year. He has taken over the mantle from Roger Federer who used to be considered a monty for the title and he now holds a record seven titles here at the Australian Opens. He seems to be getting better with age at the tournament, having claimed a straight sets win over Rafael Nadal as if the Spaniard was just a run-of-the-mill player. His seventh title moved him one clear of second favourite in this event – Federer – after the Swiss Master won the past two. With the exception of Stan Wawrinka in 2014, Djokovic and Federer have had the stranglehold over the title winning all of the other years from 2010-2019, and prior to that won three of the past four with only Rafael Nadal causing a massive five-set upset over Federer.

Heading into the 2020 event, Djokovic has been in good form to start the year, winning every match at the ATP Cup, including wins against Nadal, Daniil Medvedev, Denis Shapovalov and Gael Monfils who are all inside the top 15 players in the world. Put simply, it would take an unbelievable effort to knock Djokovic off his perch. Barring something spectacular that very few outside of Federer or maybe Nick Kyrgios could produce, it is hard to see the Serbian losing here. In fact, Kyrgios is the only player on tour that Djokovic has a losing record against, going down in both games they have played. But unless Kyrgios is able to make it all the way to the Australian Open final, the pair is unlikely to face-off this year.

Why he can win it?

– Seven Australian Open titles
– Best hard court player in the world
– Most consistent of the ‘Big 3’
– Dominated the Australian Open last year, only dropping two sets and smashing Rafael Nadal in the final
– Beat Rafael Nadal in the ATP Cup on hard court in Australia

The knocks?

– He won his first Aus Open title in three years last year, so there was a mini period of not being completely dominant at Melbourne Park
– His title-winning habits throughout the year have slowed since his dominant mid-decade exploits
– He lost to Federer and Dominic Thiem at the ATP Finals

CONTENDERS:

Roger Federer (Switzerland)
Rank: #3
Seed: #3

The Swiss Master is only one title behind Novak Djokovic here at Melbourne Park, so you can never discount the star who will always make it to the pointy end of the Grand Slam. He might be 38-years-old now and coming into the twilight of his career, but no-one underestimates Federer who is predicted to at least make it to another semi-final if not a final. Over his career, Federer has clocked up a mind-boggling 103 titles including 20 Grand Slams – the most of all-time. Remarkably with Nadal one behind and Djokovic back on 16, it is somewhat scary to think what one of these players could have been on had it not been an era with three champions. Federer has only lost one final he has competed in at the Australian Open – that five-set thriller to Rafael Nadal. He will need to be at his best to topple Djokovic here, but he will also be aware that Nadal will likely level him on Grand Slams when the French Open rolls around again so keeping one ahead would be important.

Why he can win it?

– A six-time winner
– The greatest of all-time in the sport to-date
– He defeated Djokovic at the ATP Finals and is better than Nadal on clay
– Universally respected as someone who is capable of beating Djokovic at Melbourne Park

The knocks?

– Djokovic is incredibly hard to beat at Melbourne Park
– He is now 38-years-old
– Did not win a Grand Slam last year

Rafael Nadal (Spain)
Rank: #1
Seed: #1

The King of Clay is only one title behind Federer for the overall all-time leader, and given he is five years Federer’s junior, Nadal has some extra time to catch up. He has 19 Grand Slams to his name, though 12 of them are at Roland Garros, and a further four at the US Open with only one coming at Melbourne Park. He can get it done on the biggest stages, but is a rung below the other two when it comes to Melbourne Park. Not landing in Federer’s half at this year’s event is important and paves the way for another finals appearance. Hard court is actually his weakest surface statistically, and while he has won the 21 titles compared to four on grass, has an overall lower win-loss record. Nonetheless, Nadal is always a threat and never out of the contest and he would love to hunt down a title against the odds here.

Why he can win it?

– He is world number one for a reason
– Has won a Grand Slam title here against Federer
– Won a Davis Cup last year on hard court with great shot play
– One of the biggest endurance bases and work rates on court

The knocks?

– He is the King of Clay and struggles against Djokovic and Federer on hard court, especially in Australia
– Has a 1-4 record in finals at Melbourne Park
– Has lost to Djokovic at the ATP Cup

Daniil Medvedev (Russia)
Rank: #4
Seed: #4

Let’s be honest, after the top three there is a bit of a gap, but just quietly Daniil Medvedev might be a little pleased to have ended up in Rafael Nadal’s half than Novak Djokovic’s one. Nadal is susceptible on hard court compared to clay and Medvedev is a future Grand Slam winner on the surface. He has beaten Djokovic on hard court, as well as a host of other top 10 players and became the youngest Grand Slam finalist when he reached the US Open final. Unfortunately he went down to Nadal in an almost five-hour thriller after being two sets down, but became the first Russian in a final since Marat Safin in 2005. He had some injury concerns earlier in the year, but is predicted to be the next Grand Slam winner if he can maintain his form and confidence. He did have a disappointing ATP Finals last year, losing all three of his matches, but heads into 2020 as a genuine contender for the Australian Open title.

Why he can win it?

– Building form over the past couple of years
– Ready to hit his prime and avoids Novak Djokovic until the final if he makes it
– Won his first two ATP Masters 1000 titles last year at Shanghai and Cincinnati
– Is a natural hard court player
– Had the most overall wins in 2019 (59) of which 46 came on hard court

The knocks?

– Has a 9-18 record against top 10 players
– Has an 0-5 record in Grand Slam deciding sets
– Lost all three games at the ATP Finals to Alexander Zverev, Rafael Nadal and Stefanos Tsitsipas

Stefanos Tsitsipas (GRE)
Rank: #6
Seed: #6

After being named the 2018 Most Improved Player, the Greek star took his game to another level in 2019, moving up to sixth overall in the rankings and followed on from his Next Gen ATP Finals win in 2018 to win the ATP Finals last year on debut. His rise to stand up in the biggest tournament of the year was superb and at 20 years of age became the youngest Grand Slam semi-finalist since Andy Roddick in 2003 when he reached the final four at Melbourne Park. He could very well get there again and given he was able to beat the best players on hard court at the ATP Finals, he is hard to fault as a genuine contender. Tsitsipas had an up-and-down ATP Cup this year, losing to both Denis Shapovalov and Nick Kyrgios, though he smashed an out-of-sorts Alexander Zverev in straight sets. He has not had another tournament since so enters Melbourne Park rested.

Why he can win it?

– Won the ATP Finals last year after the Next Gen ATP Finals in 2018
– Made semi-finals in both hard court events at the US Open and Australian Open
– Has beaten Federer and Djokovic on hard court
– Along with Medvedev seems the next best chance to break the cycle of Grand Slams to the ‘Big Three’

The knocks?

– Still young and unpredictable
– His best is sublime but can drop games to lower ranked players
– Lacks experience compared to others

Stan Wawrinka
Rank: #15
Seed: #15

It is a very rare club to have won an Australian Open in the past 14 years if your name is not Djokovic or Federer. In fact, only Nadal and Stan Wawrinka feature in that club, with the Swiss number two winning back in 2014. That year he cleaned up Novak Djokovic in a five-set thriller that saw him get up 9-7 in the fifth, and went all the way to the final, getting past Tomas Berdych and Nadal to claim the title. He has also won Grand Slam titles at Roland Garros and the US Open and regularly makes the final eight at the Grand Slams. He is one of the very few capable of beating Djokovic on hard court, as he did so in the US Open final and in that run to the Australian Open title. Wawrinka also pushes Federer in their matches and defeated Djokovic again in the US Open where the Serbian had to retire, but Wawrinka was 6-4 7-5 2-1 up at the time. He deserves to be a contender.

Why he can win it?

– Has won an Australian Open title, along with two other titles
– Has some of the most powerful, clean hits on tour with a backhand to savour
– Can knock off Djokovic on hard court
– Reached quarter finals at both the US Open and Roland Garros last year, including a win over Novak Djokovic

The knocks?

– Is now 34-years-old and in the twilight of his career
– Has had some injury concerns of late

ROUGHIES:

Dominic Thiem (AUT)
Rank: #5
Seed: #5

The top five Austrian had his best year yet in 2019. He is a few years older than the names around him outside of the ‘Big Three’, but won five tournaments last year, with his best one coming in the ATP Masters 1000 at Indian Wells. He also came runner-up in the ATP Finals, going down to Stefanos Tsitsipas in the final. His 2020 season did not start according to plan, losing to 28th ranked Borna Coric and 37th ranked Hubert Hurkacz at the ATP Cup, with only a win over Diego Schwartzman the saving grace. He has not played since so comes in with not a great deal of form this year, but showed late last year what he is capable of on a hard court in big matches.

Why he can win it?

– Won his first ATP Masters 1000 tournament on the back of his best year
– Had a strong ATP Finals series to reach the final, defeating both Federer and Djokovic in the tough group
– Knows how to beat the top players on hard court

The knocks?

– Still inconsistent at times
– Had a disappointing start to 2020, dropping to fifth with his ATP Cup performance and missing out on the coveted number four seed at the Australian Open

David Goffin (BEL)
Rank: #11
Seed: #11

Considered a journeyman to some extent over the years, Goffin has picked a time to really stand out with some terrific performances at the ATP Cup. He came from behind against Grigor Dimitrov, then took down world number one Nadal in straight sets. His 2019 finish to the year was terrible with four out of five games being losses. His last run of back-to-back wins before the ATP Cup this year was at Shanghai in October, and one of them was a retirement. A sole win over Alexander Zverev was the only top 10 victory Goffin mustered up last year, but if you are only as good as your last game, then his straight sets win against Nadal has to count for something. There is no doubt Goffin does not have the upside of others on the list, but he seems like he could be the player that just happens to pick the right time to go on a hot run and he is on his preferred surface at Melbourne Park. He’s a consistent player finishing in the top 20 for four of the last five seasons, but yet to take the step up into the game’s elite.

Why he can win it?

– In red-hot form from the ATP Cup, defeated Rafael Nadal and Grigor Dimitrov
– Very impressive in tight games, a 12-4 fifth set record over his career
– Hard court is his preferred surface

The knocks?

– He is now 29-years-old and yet to win a Grand Slam
– has not won a title since 2017, and only four to his name
– Has a career record of 16-53 against top 10 players
– Had a terrible finish to the year last year

Alexander Zverev (GER)
Rank: #7
Seed: #7

The towering German is still only 22-years-old and one of the game’s brightest stars for the future. He is one of the most frustrating talents at times because he can blow opponents off the park, yet can completely go to water at times as well. At the ATP Cup he took it up to Alex de Minaur, but was blown off the park by both Tsitsipas and Denis Shapovalov because his inconsistent serving was nothing short of a horror show. It was hard to believe he was the same player that dismantled Rafael Nadal at the ATP Finals last year, but that is exactly what you get with Zverev. His best is as good as anyone’s and possibly better at times, but his worst is arguably the worst of anyone’s in the top 10. He made it to the fourth round last year at Melbourne Park before a straight sets loss to Milos Raonic ended his run. His disappointing first round loss at Wimbledon soured an otherwise promising year – though it did not reach the heights of 2017-18 – finishing with 11 titles to his name from his career.

Why he can win it?

– First player to beat all of ‘Big Three’ at the ATP Finals with Nadal last year and Federer and Djokovic in 2018
– Consistently thereabouts in big tournaments and has been dominating outside of Grand Slams with 10 titles in the past three years
– Has won an ATP Finals series and three ATP Masters before
– His best can beat anyone

The knocks?

– Inconsistency, particularly on serve, hurts him
– Can lose the plot at times and confidence drops
– Has not made it past the fourth round of a Grand Slam outside of Roland Garros

Andrey Rublev (RUS)
Rank: #18
Seed: #17

If there was one player in the best possible form heading into the Australian Open, then it is hard to look past Russian young gun, Andrey Rublev. The 22-year-old entered the top 20 for the first time in his career this year with two titles in Doha and Adelaide and is unbeaten in 2020 thus far. He had a great run at the 2019 US Open before being stopped by Matteo Berrettini in the fourth round, but he knocked off both Stefanos Tsitsipas and Nick Kyrgios on the way to the Round of 16. He only made it to the Round of 32 at the Australian Open in 2018 and was bundled out in the first round last year, along with the 2018 US Open and a second round exit at Wimbledon in 2019. His quarter final run at the US Open in 2017 was still his best, but he is yet to replicate it. Based on the form he has shown this year, the hard-hitting Russian could be a surprise packet at Melbourne Park for his best finish yet.

Why he can win it?

– In red-hot form and unbeaten in 2020, winning at both Doha and Adelaide
– Had a career-high 38 wins last year in his best season yet
– Entered the top 20 for the first time this year

The knocks?

– Yet to do too much damage in Grand Slams
– Has a 2-3 record from minimal games in five sets and 5-12 record against top 10 players

Nick Kyrgios (AUS)
Rank: #26
Seed: #24

The Australian firebrand has improved his image over the past six months as he has begun to learn what it takes to be one of the best in the world. Make no mistake, at his best, Kyrgios could beat anyone, he has done it before and stands up in big games. He just has not had the consistency or at times determination to really put the foot down against lesser opponents, while he has a ridiculous record against the world’s best. He has beaten all of the ‘Big 3’ but has struggled against Federer with a 1-6 record, while his 3-4 record against Nadal is solid – with a 2-1 record on hard court. Most impressively he has won both encounters with Djokovic and is the only player to have a winning record against the Serbian, but has ended up in the opposite half of the draw at Melbourne Park this year. If he can piece together all his ability and playmaking, Kyrgios can continue the form he showed at the ATP Cup – where he almost lifted Australia to a title – then he could be the perfect example of a roughie.

Why he can win it?

– Only player in the world with a winning record over Novak Djokovic
– Has the ability to be the best in the world
– On home soil and loves the energy of the crowd
– Has all the physical tools to become one of the best on tour

The knocks?

– On-court attitude always a talking point, despite his off-court nature very different
– Can tend to fade out of games or have cold streaks at different points and can lack consistency
– Yet to really stamp his authority at a Grand Slam

DARK HORSES:

Roberto Bautisa Agut (ESP)
Rank: #9
Seed: #9

Mr Reliable from Spain is the player that will beat anyone who is down on their game but has always struggled against the game’s elite. Not for of a lack of trying, but more there are just others that have more weapons. Roberto Bautisa Agut, commonly referred to as ‘RBA’, has always been a player that opponents have to be wary of because he rarely plays a poor game, but can just be outclassed. His record against top 10 players is pretty bad with a 11-50 run over his career, and until last year had an 0-9 record in Grand Slam fourth rounds. He was your perennial Round of 16 exit. Just as RBA looked to be heading into the twilight of his career, he produced a career-best season and bolted into the top 10 where he finds himself seeded at this year’s Australian Open. He is also unbeaten in 2020 after a superb run at the ATP Cup, though in fairness he won against players outside the top 100 – bar Nick Kyrgios and Dusan Lajovic in that time – but all the wins were impressive in comfortable straight sets.

Why he can win it?

– Consistent as they come
– Had a career best year in 2019, breaking into the top 10 for the first time in August and finished the year at number 9
– Made his first Grand Slam semi-final last year at Wimbledon and quarter final at Australian Open
– Past seven titles have come on hard court

The knocks?

– He is 31-years-old and until last year looked nothing more than a solid player
– Still yet to make a Grand Slam final
– Has never won more than two titles in a year
– Has an 11-50 record against top 10 players

Grigor Dimitrov (BLR)
Rank: #19
Seed: #18

Once considered a future Grand Slam winner, the now 28-year-old Belarusian is yet to taste the ultimate glory. He has been a difficult player to face over the past decade, but slipped to as low as 78th last year, his lowest rank since 2012. He bounced back up the order with a Grand Slam semi-final at the US Open, where he defeated Federer for the first time in eight attempts in the third round. He dropped out in the first round at Wimbledon, third round at Roland Garros and fourth round at the Australian Open. He has remarkably lost three times to Stan Wawrinka in Grand Slams over the past two years – twice in the first round. His best appearance at an Australian Open was a semi-finalist in 2017, and also made a quarter final the year after. One expected to potentially force his way into the final eight.

Why he can win it?

– Always impressive at Melbourne Park
– Broke his winless drought against Federer last year
– Still has the shot play to do damage against the world’s best
– Had his equal best performance at a Grand Slam last year since his semi-final in 2017

The knocks?

– Has not quite reached the heights predicted of him when he first joined the tour and was cracking inside the top 10
– Only played the ATP Cup in the lead-up to the Australian Open, though beat Daniel Evans and Radu Albot before losing to David Goffin
– Yet to make a Grand Slam final
– Is under an injury cloud with blisters reportedly impacting him

Matteo Berrettini (ITA)
Rank: #8
Seed: #8

The highest ranked player in our dark horses section, Berrettini only has the three titles to his name in his career and is yet to win one on hardcourt. His form at the end of last year was shaky, with a great win over Dominic Thiem in the ATP Finals in straight sets in between six losses either side of that victory. Berrettini bolted up the ATP rankings with a semi-finals appearance at the US Open after being ranked 54th this time last year and bowing out in the first round to the 15th seeded Stefanos Tsitsipas. He will be better for the run this year, but is still far from the finished product. Most importantly, Berrettini finished the year in eighth, avoiding playing any of the top eight players until the quarter finals.

Why he can win it?

– Had a career-best year shooting up from the 50s to top 10 by years-end
– Made his first Grand Slam semi-final at the US Open
– Still young and ready to blossom and take the next step in his career

The knocks?

– Yet to impact at the Australian Open
– Had a disappointing end to 2019
– Still an unknown quantity at Melbourne Park or consistently at an elite level

Denis Shapovalov (CAN)
Rank: #13
Seed: #13

It could be a good year for Canada with a pair of young guns potentially looking to crack into the top 10 and provide the nation with some exciting tennis over the next decade. Shapovalov is 20-years-old and already among the most exciting to watch. He has only won the one title in his career, breaking through for his maiden one at Stockholm last year. In 2020 already he has beaten Zverev and Tsitsipas in straight sets, and narrowly lost to Djokovic in a third set tiebreaker. His end to the end was fairly impressive with a Davis Cup Final, and a final at the ATP Masters 1000 in Paris, defeating Zverev, Gael Monfils and Fabio Fognini along the way. At last year’s Australian Open, Shapovalov reached the third round where he unluckily ran into eventual winner Djokovic.

Why he can win it?

– Is building into something special
– Has beaten top 10 picks already this year
– Raw and talented and plays without fear

The knocks?

– Struggles against Djokovic in head-to-heads like many others
– Yet to impact too much in a Grand Slam
– Inconsistency at times

Felix Auger-Aliassime (CAN)
Rank: #22
Seed: #20

A year younger than Shapovalov, Felix Auger-Aliassime enters the 2020 Australian Open as the only teenage seed in the men’s draw. With Kei Nishikori and de Minaur pulling out of the Open, Auger-Aliassime moved up to be seeded 20th overall. He is still new in his ATP Tour career with only 76 matches under his belt and a record of 40-36 and no titles to speak of just yet. In fact, he did not even make it into the main draw of the Australian last year, losing in the second round of qualifying. He has not been able to compete consistently with the top 10 players, losing eight of a possible 10 matches, and his start to 2020 has not been ideal with losses to John Millman, Jan-Lennard Struff and Dusan Lajovic in the ATP Cup. Auger-Aliassime made back-to-back finals at Lyon and Stuttgart before a semi-finals appearance at Queen’s Club following wins over Kyrgios and Tsitsipas.

Why he can win it?

– Young and exciting
– Has plenty of upside and could show it being seeded here in Australia
– Has the gameplay to worry the top players even if he is yet to show it consistently

The knocks?

– Only won two matches at Grand Slams from five appearances
– Did not make the main draw at Australian Open last year
– Inexperienced and is yet to play a five-set match

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Prediction: Novak Djokovic to defeat Daniil Medvedev in the final.