NO one would have been surprised if prior to the tournament you had said eight-time Australian Open champion, world number one Novak Djokovic would be facing off in yet another semi-final at Melbourne Park. However his opponent on the other hand, 114th ranked qualifier Aslan Karatsev is an obscure for a pick that proves sometimes real life can be better than fiction.

The 27-year-old had won three – yes just three – matches coming into the Australian Open in his career. In fact, the Russian had only played a total of 13  ATP Tour matches. Including qualifying, Karatsev has now piled on eight wins on the trot, though only five of those come as official ATP Tour wins. Not enough could be said about the sheer remarkable ability of his feat.

He knocked off Italian Gianluca Mager to bring up his first ever Grand Slam main draw win, which is more like a light applause and back patting. Then, he made Belarusian Egor Gerasimov – who has had his fair share of upsets over the years – look like a midweek social pennant player by destroying him 6-0 6-1 6-0 in 93 minutes. That caught everyone’s attention, but it was his straight sets dismissal of world number nine and eighth seed, Diego Schwartzman that really had jaws dropping.

Schwartzman might not have the most weapons, but her rarely drops games to much lower opponents, but he was bundled out in straight sets as well, 6-3 6-3 6-3 in the third round. When Karatsev was two sets to love down against Canadian young gun Felix Auger-Aliassime, it looked like the dream was over. Think again. After three hours and 25 minutes, Karatsev fought his way back from the brink to win 3-6 1-6 6-3 6-3 6-4 to book a quarter finals appearance.

Then, in his most recent outing, he came back from a set down against 18th seed Grigor Dimitrov – who was coming off a straight sets win over world number three and reigning Australian Open finalist Dominic Thiem – to win 2-6 6-4 6-1 6-2. That match lasted two hours and 32 minutes, and kept the fairytale alive for the unlikely Russian qualifier who sent historians flicking through the history books to remember the last time a qualifier made the final four.

The fact of the matter was, Karatsev had actually made history. He became the first ever qualifier in the Open Era at the Australian Open to make a semi-final, and the first ever one on main draw debut to do so. He did it thanks to a powerful play against Dimitrov where he matched it with him blow-for-blow and then overcame him with 34 winners to 21, and only 10 more unforced errors (44-34).

“It’s an unbelievable feeling. Of course it’s my first time playing [a Grand Slam] main draw, first time [in the] semis,” Karatsev said post-match. “It’s incredible.”

Both players hit nine aces, and Karatsev was more clinical on his serve with a 67 per cent first serve success rate, and 55 per cent second serve success rate. He broke eight times from 11 chances, making more of his opportunities than his Bulgarian opponent (four of 14), to book his place in the final four. Now the comparisons to his new opponent are mind-blowing before you even get into it.

Karatsev has won eight matches on the trot, the same number of Australian Open’s that Djokovic has. The world number one is vying for his 18th Grand Slam title, Karatsev still only has eight ATP Tour wins in his career. The Russian qualifier has more than doubled his career prize money from his run at the Australian Open, whereas for Djokovic, it is a drop in the ocean.

The official numbers say that heading into the 2021 Australian Open, Karatsev had earned $618,354 USD career prize money, whereas the world number one has pocketed a casual $145,861,177 in his time. The 3-10 win-loss record is compared to a remarkable 936-192 for the Serbian star. Finally, 81 career titles to zero. The head-to-heads could go on forever, but the storyline remains the same, the journeyman underdog who no one saw coming is now up against the world’s best player, at his most dominant tournament.

Djokovic got there thanks to a four-set win over sixth seed Alexander Zverev, defeating the German 6-7 6-2 6-4 7-6 to roll into the semis showing a potential injury was not going to impact him. He served 23 aces to 21, had a 73 per cent to 64 per cent serving efficiency, and broke six times to three throughout the match. He also produced three more winners (48-45), though was not as clinical as usual with 18 more unforced errors (56-38), a rare stat to lose to the usually inconsistent Zverev. In the end, he made his way through to face an opponent he never would have predicted in his wildest dreams.

“Down to the very last shot, it was anybody’s game, anybody’s match,” Djokovic said post-match. “[There were] a lot of nerves out there, a lot of pressure. Emotionally, [I] feel a little drained, honestly. It was a great battle. Congratulations to Sascha for a great tournament and a great battle today. Tough luck today, but we pushed each other to the limit.”

While Djokovic might not have expected Karatsev as an opponent, he had done his homework on him and is not taking him lightly given his strengths.

“To be honest, I hadn’t seen [Karatsev] play at all before the Australian Open,” Djokovic said. “Of course, I have seen him play during the Australian Open… He is a very strong guy. “Physically, he is just very strong. “He moves well [and] just has a lot of firepower from the back of the court. [He has a] great backhand. “[He is straight] from the Russian school of tennis, [they] always have great backhands. “He serves well and he is motivated. “He has nothing to lose.”

Already Karatsev is a winner in the rankings, bolting up a mammoth 72 spots from 114th to 42nd, even if he loses the semi, going ahead of names such as Kei Nishikori, Marin Cilic and Nick Kyrgios in the process. If he wins, he will end his run in the Top 25 amongst the very top players on Tour, and everyone will be watching to see how he fares after what is a breakout tournament for the 27-year-old.

Unfortunately for the Russian, the other eight previous times Djokovic has reached an Australian Open semi-final, he has gone all the way. The winner of their semi-final will face the winner of the other semi-final, with two quarter finals to be completed today. An all-Russian battle between Daniil Medvedev and Andrey Rublev takes place, as does world number two Rafael Nadal up against fifth seed Stefanos Tsitsipas.

QUARTER FINALS RESULTS:

[1] Novak Djokovic (SRB) defeated [6] Alexander Zverev (GER) 6-7 6-2 6-4 7-6
[Q] Aslan Karatsev (RUS) defeated [18] Grigor Dimitrov (BUL) 2-6 6-4 6-1 6-2

Picture credit: ATP Tour