Spanish Conundrum: What does the future of Spain look like for the ATP super power?

FOR the past two decades, Spain has been the most dominant nation on the ATP Tour. Between 2000-2012, the European nation won five Davis Cup titles and finished runner-up twice in that time. Aside from a stunning World Group relegation back in 2014 when they lost to Brazill in the playoff, Spain has never been too far from success. Not just from a team perspective, but an individual one too.

Rafael Nadal is one of the greatest tennis players to have graced the earth. He is indisputably the best clay courter to have ever played the game. With 12 Roland Garros titles – and fresh air to the next highest Open era player on six – the Spanish star is near-unbeatable on the surface. But he turned 34-years-old last month, and while he still has at least a few good years left, who steps up to be that number one Spanish player?

A little worrying trend is the age bracket of Spain’s top talents. Of the top 60 players, six of the seven are all the wrong side of 30-years-old, and Pablo Carreno Busta the ‘baby’ of the group is 29. In five years time, who will be left? Possible only Carreno Busta, but there are never any guarantees.

In recent years we have seen the likes of Tommy Robredo and David Ferrer retire, and before them, Juan Carlos Ferrero and Carlos Moya who paved the way for the latest Spanish core. But who is the future of the nation that has for so long dominated the circuit, in particular on clay?

The highest ranked player outside of Carreno Busta who is born in the 90s is 97th ranked Alejandro Davidovich Fokina. At 21-years-old he seems like the next natural talent to progress. He is still very raw, yet to win a title and has a 5-14 win-loss record on the ATP Tour. Of the six matches outside of clay, he has won just one which was a five-set come-from-behind win over 113th ranked Slovenian Norbert Gombos at Melbourne Park this year. He was then smashed by 366th ranked Hernan Casanova at Buenos Aires the next week.

Next in line is 99th ranked Roberto Carballes Baena. He at least has a title – at the Quito Open in 2018 – making it all the way through qualifying to take out compatriot, Albert Ramos-Vinolas in the final. Excluding that though, he is 27-years-old and runs at a 45.3 per cent win-loss record on Tour, and has no impact outside the clay circuit with just 18 matches on other surfaces for nine wins.

Jaume Munar arguably has the most potential of the bunch, but just has to iron our his consistency issues. Munar has not won a title, and is yet to win on grass, but at 23-years-old is at least competing at a regular ATP Tour level and runs at almost 50 per cent on clay, and 42.5 per cent when factoring in hard court. However, he stunned world number three Alexander Zverev last year in Marrakech, defeated Fabio Fognini and Marco Cecchinato in back-to-back Argentinian tournaments, and fast forward to this year, won a set off Dominic Thiem in Rio. It shows a pattern that he is building to something if he can begin to show it more consistently.

Finally, two others worth keeping an eye on are the two highest Spaniards born this century in 20-year-old Nicola Kuhn and 17-year-old Carlos Alcaraz. Kuhn has only played the six ATP Tour matches to date, and is currently ranked 232nd in the world with a career-high of 174th. Last year he won a title in Spain on the Challenger Tour, and the next week at Flushing Meadows reached the second round of qualifying thanks to a handy win over Sergiy Stakhovsky. Last year he beat 92nd ranked Tunisian, Malek Jaziri and 76th ranked Federico Delbonis – his best win to date reaching the second round at the Barcelona ATP500 event. He is still too raw and has not had enough data to get a read one.

Alcaraz played his first ATP Tour matches this year despite turning professional back in 2018. His one win to date was a very handy one, knocking off Ramos-Vinolas at Rio before going down in three sets to Federico Coria in the Round of 16. To notch up a maiden win at such a prestigious event is huge for his confidence having come off a finals appearance at a lowly M15 in Turkey a couple of weeks prior, and winning back-to-back M15 titles in Spain. Starting the year at 490 in the world, those four results catapulted him up to 314. He is still only 17, but looks exciting and could be one that, depending on the way the ATP Tour goes or does not go this year, ends up in the top 200 by December. Getting a wildcard at Roland Garros would be a huge first step.

So who are the next wave of Spaniards to take over from Nadal and his mates inside the top 50. Munar and very early signs of Alcatraz look good, while Carballes-Baena is likely to be a top 50 player without being a threatening Grand Slam winner. What Spain does so well is it often has a couple of genuine Grand Slam title hopes, backed up by some terrific depth that round out a superb Davis Cup team. It may not have the same hope or look as the early 2000s, but we could be about to see a number of fresh names explode onto the court for Spain.

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