FOR the first time since the 1970s when the Open era commenced, the United States have gone through a decade without a representative holding the number one ranked position. Long considered a tennis super power, the United States have had Jimmy Connors of the 70s, John McEnroe through the 80s, Jim Courier, Pete Sampras and Andre Agassi of the 90s, and most recently, Andy Roddick of the early 2000s. But since then, no one has taken over the mantle. Indeed, not since January, 2004 has an American – Roddick – held pole position in the world rankings.

Now the counter argument is that the latest era – the past 16 years – has been dominated by three men. Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic have passed around the number one title since taking over from Roddick. The only one to crash that party was Andy Murray in November 2016, where he held the title for almost a year. Naturally, one could argue nations such as Australia and Sweden who in the past are the only other nations to have three players hold the number one position (aside from Spain).

It is one thing to not hold a number one ranking for a long period of time, but it is another to not realistically come close to it. John Isner has effectively been America’s top player since Roddick retired, but if you can nullify his serving game, Isner does not have the weapons to be a number one player. He is a great player, and he did reach world number eight a couple of years ago, but of his 15 career titles, 13 have come in the United States – five in Atlanta, four in Newport, two in Winston-Salem, one in Houston and one in Miami – with the other two coming in Auckland at the ATP250 event. His Miami Masters title was the highlight of his career, but realistically, for the top player in his nation, Isner has not been able to reach the same heights of his predecessors. Now 34-years-old, Isner can still be a threat around the Tour, but it is unlikely he graces the top 10 again.

A year earlier, Jack Sock reached the same career-high of eighth in the world. Having only won one title to his name coming into 2017, Sock won three titles, including at Auckland, Delray Beach and then the big one in Paris – the ATP Masters. Unfortunately for Sock, injuries truck and he tumbled down the rankings, winning just six of 22 matches the following year, and then fell right down to 208 in the world upon return, dropping matches to players outside the top 300 and retiring twice. He had good potential, but has cruelly been struck by injury and now sits at 388 in the world, three years after he was entrenched in the top 10. It can be a cruel game.

The third American to be hanging around over the last decade but not really crack into a meaningful spot is Sam Querrey. The recently turned 33-year-old is in the twilight of his career having won 10 titles and reached world number 11. After his 2010 season where he won four titles – impressively on each of the three surfaces – Querrey looked to be going places. A decade later, he has only won an additional four titles and none since 2017. The two-handed backhander is good enough to challenge the top 30 players, but is not a threat for the top handful, and has not won a ATP Tour title outside of Central America aside from that 2010 season where he won at Queen’s Club and Belgrade.

Looking ahead to the future, who from the United States is ready to take over and potentially go that step further, become a top 10 player and try and stay there to renew American tennis once again?

Taylor Fritz is the first name that comes to mind. A 22-year-old from California who reached a career-high 24th in the world prior to the COVID-19 lockdown. He has run at a 50 per cent win-loss record, but is an effective server with a 75 per cent success rate off his first serve points. He has won 81 per cent off his service games too, which surely means he should be higher? Unfortunately, Fritz has won just 18 per cent of his return games over his career, and that is a factor that just simply has to improve over time. If he is going to compete with the stars of the Tour, it needs to be up at least 10 per cent.

Another player at his career-high ranking currently is Tommy Paul, with the New Jersey-born 22-year-old a late comer to the Tour compared to many of his compatriots, but has enjoyed a good past six months. He reached the final of Adelaide when he was ranked 90 in the world, defeating four top 100 players, then backed it up with wins over top 20 players, Grigor Dimitov – at Melbourne Park reaching the Round of 32 – and Alexander Zverev – at Acapulco, reaching the quarter finals – which shows potential. He too could improve his return game (20 per cent won), but has a solid 78 per cent service game record, and a reliable 61 per cent first serve. He is not as strong on serve as Fritz – but more consistent.

A third 22-year-old is Frances Tiafoe, though the fear with Tiafoe is the gap between his best and his worst. Last year the American reached 29 in the world following a remarkable run to the quarter finals at Melbourne Park. He knocked off top 40 players, Kevin Anderson, Andreas Seppi and Dimitrov in the process, before losing to Nadal in the last eight. A fortnight later he was bundled out in straight sets by 143rd ranked Jason Jung in New York. Within a month, Tiafoe would lose to Bernard Tomic, but defeat Gael Monfils. In 2020, he had a shaky start with just two wins from seven matches on Tour.

Finally, fast forward to a kid who only turned professional this year, but could well have the greatest upside if he can fulfil it. Brandon Nakashima is just 18-years-old and has played three ATP Tour matches. In those three matches at Delray Beach, he defeated Jiri Vesely and Cameron Norrie, before going down in three tough sets to Yoshihito Nishioka in the quarter finals. It might seem early to be impressed by what he has to offer, but coached by Australian legend Pat Cash, Nakashima has some great upside. As a junior boys semi-finalist at the US Open last year, he has the runs on the board from junior level, and reached number four on the junior ITF rankings.

With the Big Three’s reign coming to an end over the next few years, there is a chance for others to step up. While right now there is no United States prospect leaping up into contention, they have the next core group of players who can hopefully challenge for a top 10 rank and go from there.