ARYNA Sabalenka has a perfect chance to head into the WTA Tour off-season by announcing herself ahead of a big 2021 season. In the final tournament of the year in the Upper Australia Ladies Linz, the Belarusian is the top seed and possesses by far the most power, but also great upside. The world number 11 is the sole top 20 player at the event with world number 21 Elise Mertens the second seed, and Dayana Yastremska (29th) and Ekaterina Alexandrova (33rd) the other two top 40 players at the event.

In short, Sabalenka should win this event, no ifs, no buts. But just which Sabalenka will come out at the hard court event? Will it be the one who was a point away from being 6-0 5-0 down against world number 73 Sara Sorribes Tormo in the qualifying final at Ostrava? Or will it be the one who then won 12 consecutive games to blow her opponent out of the water and win that game a remarkable 0-6 6-4 6-0?

Sometimes her inconsistency can be harshly criticised because she has only turned 22 this year, even though it feels like she has been around for a lot longer. In a shortened season she has won 24 of her 35 matches thus far, but the question mark does not come over her ability to beat anyone on any given day, but her ability to make life difficult on herself because she simply does not have an off switch when it comes to her power.

Sabalenka has a set win-loss record of 53-30 which is 63.9 per cent. It is higher than her previous past three seasons on tour, which is promising, as is her game winning percentage of 55.1 per cent. Compare her to second seed Mertens, who has won 30-13 this season, playing an additional eight matches but posting a higher win percentage of 69.8 per cent. Her set percentage is 69.1 per cent and her game percentage is 58.2 per cent.

This might be said that Mertens has a ceiling, which is true. She does not possess the same among of weapons as the Belarusian, but she wins the matches she should, and usually fairly well. Since Prague started back on August 10, Mertens is 19-6, turning around an 11-7 start to the year. Like Sabalenka she has seemingly benefited from the break. Her losses – bar a shock first-up defeat to Aliaksandra Sasnovich back in Palermo on August 3 – have come to four top 10 or former top 10 players in Simona Halep, Victoria Azarenka, Naomi Osaka and Karolina Pliskova, and an unlucky defeat to Caroline Garcia at Roland Garros.

In summary to these two players, Mertens wins the matches she should, so you can almost book her spot in the final, or certainly the semi-final, whilst Sabalenka could go through the tournament without dropping a set, or very well bounce out in the first round. She has got a little more consistent than in past years, and is coming off a title in Ostrava to match her one from Doha back in February, but within matches she has these lapses where she goes all-out and her opponent can just wait for the mistakes.

Aside from the top two, Yastremska is one who could be entitled to feel right in the hunt for this title. Her season has been more up and down even compared to the other two, especially since the break. An 8-6 record is not too far different from her 9-6 record prior to the COVID-19 shutdown and she is still finding herself on Tour. The only notable win in the second half of this season came in Rome against Amanda Anisimova, with the 29th ranked Yastremska drifting outside the top 25 she got into prior to the break.

Fourth seed Alexandrova is coming into her favourite time of year – the European winter – where she does all her best work. The Russian remarkably pops up and wins Limoges each year which takes place next month. A three-time Limoges winner, due to its 125K nature, it did not count as a WTA Tour title, with Shenzhen being her first official title victory in January this year. At that point Alexandrova was on fire, building up the wins and even beating Elena Rybakina in the final.

But the issue with Alexandrova is she needs to do it the other nine months of the year. She was a past finalist in Linz 2018, going down to Camila Giorgi, and she has gone from outside the top 100 to inside the top 30 in the past two years off modest, without spectacular returns. This is her chance to continue that form into 2020 because she will probably win a fourth title in Limoges.

As for the remaining seeds, Veronika Kudermetova is coming off a good run at Ostrava from the qualifying to the quarter finals, defeating second seed Pliskova, and Donna Vekic along the way, but outside Ostrava, she has a 3-7 record since the return of the Tour. Nadia Podoroska cannot play consistently on hard court and has a tough quarter with Irina Camelia-Begu up first and then either Giorgi or Sorribes Tormo who are both underrated talents.

Jil Teichmann has some potential but is not there yet, whilst eighth seed Bernarda Pera takes on the challenging Sasnovich in the first round and there are no guarantees she gets past that. A 9-11 record on Tour in 2020 tells you all you need to know about the world number 61. Outside the seeds, Sorribes Tormo is a chance, with veteran Vera Zvonareva likely to give Mertens some troubles in a likely second round match, whilst Arantxa Rus is always good for an upset.

At the end of the day though, this is Sabalenka’s title to win. If she comes out and plays the way she can, there is no one in this tournament that could touch her. But she just comes with so many question marks not just match to match, but set to set and even game to game sometimes, so let’s hope she answers them.

Picture: Jimmie48 / WTA