JUST 10 games remain in the regular season of the NAB League Boys, with six sides having a single match remaining in season 2019 prior to the post-season series. With Tasmania Devils included in the competition this year, only the top three sides receive a week off over Wildcard Round, while fourth to thirteenth play-off in a knockout round for the right to play finals. From there it is pure elimination over three weeks with the top two teams making the grand final.

1 Eastern Ranges

Run home: Dandenong Stingrays, Calder Cannons
Best possible finish: 1st
Worst possible finish: 3rd
Predicted finish: 1st

Unless the Ranges completely fall from grace and drop both remaining games, they should have a top two spot which is the most important thing. They could drop to third if Oakleigh Chargers can win both, but if Sandringham win in the final round, the percentage gap between the Ranges and both the Dragons and Chargers is just too much even for farfetched possibilities.

2 Gippsland Power

Run home: Bye, Bendigo Pioneers
Best possible finish: 1st
Worst possible finish: 4th
Predicted finish: 2nd

Just cruising at the moment with a game to play, they cannot afford to drop their match to the Pioneers, particularly if somehow Oakleigh can bridge the nine per cent gap, and Sandringham beat the Chargers in the final round. It is difficult to see it happen though, and the Power look pretty destined for a top two spot.

3 Sandringham Dragons

Run home: Bye, Oakleigh Chargers
Best possible finish: 2nd
Worst possible finish: 6th
Predicted finish: 3rd

The Dragons cannot grab top spot given the percentage difference, and ultimately must defeat Oakleigh for third spot. A loss and they meet Geelong in the Wildcard Round, while a win and they can have a break whilst awaiting their opponent for the first week of finals.

4 Oakleigh Chargers

Run home: Western Jets, Sandringham Dragons
Best possible finish: 1st
Worst possible finish: 6th
Predicted finish: 4th

Based on form the Chargers should be able to claim the points against Western, and then a full-strength potential grand final preview with Sandringham will decide who gets a week off. With Eastern and Gippsland likely to lock up top two spots, the winner of the clash with the Dragons gets a week off, while the loser will face Geelong.

5 Calder Cannons

Run home: Bye, Eastern Ranges
Best possible finish: 4th
Worst possible finish: 6th
Predicted finish: 5th

Calder faces a tough final game against the likely minor premiers, and a loss could see them slip to sixth if the Jets win one of their two games. Given Oakleigh and Sandringham face off in the final round, the Cannons cannot grab a top three spot, and will instead face one of Geelong, Tasmania or GWV Rebels in the Wildcard Round.

6 Western Jets

Run home: Oakleigh Chargers, Northern Knights
Best possible finish: 4th
Worst possible finish: 8th
Predicted finish: 7th

Fourth spot is not out of the question, but they have to cause an upset against Oakleigh this week. There is every chance a full-strength Sandringham topple Oakleigh in the final round, and Eastern will likely defeat Calder, paving the way for Western to snatch fourth. It hardly matters with the extra team in the competition as it means a clash with Geelong instead of a week off. If they win one, they face GWV Rebels or Tasmania in the Wildcard Round, and id they lose both, it will likely be Bendigo.

7 Northern Knights

Run home: Bye, Western Jets
Best possible finish: 6th
Worst possible finish: 10th
Predicted finish: 6th

Will know what is on the line come their game in the final round with a number of teams below them chasing their spot. A win against the Jets should see them secure sixth unless unlikely results happen elsewhere. That means a Wildcard Round date with the GWV Rebels (or possibly Tasmania) – 12 months on from the disappointment last year against the Rebels, the Knights will be keen to atone.

8 Dandenong Stingrays

Run home: Eastern Ranges, Geelong Falcons
Best possible finish: 6th
Worst possible finish: 10th
Predicted finish: 8th

With two games in hand but an unwanted losing streak in-toe, the Stingrays will be keen to resurrect their form ahead of finals. They play the two bookends which will likely yield one win, which ensures they at least face a side outside the top eight. If Northern lose to Western, they grab seventh and likely face Bendigo instead of Murray.

9 Murray Bushrangers

Run home: Bye, GWV Rebels
Best possible finish: 7th
Worst possible finish: 11th
Predicted finish: 9th

A fairly simple scenario providing the Bushrangers can win in the final round, with them grabbing a top eight spot if Northern goes down to Western. If Dandenong somehow loses both its games – including to cellar dwellers Geelong, then the Bushrangers can move as high as seventh and play Bendigo in the Wildcard Round. More likely they faced Dandenong or Northern though.

10 Bendigo Pioneers

Run home: GWV Rebels, Gippsland Power
Best possible finish: 7th
Worst possible finish: 12th
Predicted finish: 10th

Barring a capitulation in the final fortnight, they should hold onto tenth at a worst case scenario, simply because of their superior percentage of 103. They are evenly poised with the Rebels and could leap ahead of Murray temporarily, but need the Rebels to beat Murray and Western to beat Northern – while beating Gippsland themselves – to secure a top eight spot.

11 GWV Rebels

Run home: Bendigo Pioneers, Murray Bushrangers
Best possible finish: 9th
Worst possible finish: 12th
Predicted finish: 11th

Everyone loves a good mathematical probability, but in realism, the Rebels have to make up 15 per cent to make ninth spot. Given Murray’s improvement, the Rebels likely remain eleventh, with the percentage gap too much to bridge to move up a spot even with a win over the equally placed Pioneers.

12 Tasmania Devils

Run home: Geelong Falcons, Bye
Best possible finish: 10th
Worst possible finish: 12th
Predicted finish: 12th

The Devils will want to finish the season off strong with a win in the bottom two clash, and can leapfrog the Rebels with a victory. They will likely face Calder Cannons, Western Jets or Northern Knights in the Wildcard Round depending on other results.

13 Geelong Falcons

Run home: Tasmania Devils, Dandenong Stingrays
Best possible finish: 13th
Worst possible finish: 13th
Predicted finish: 13th

Geelong cannot move from the bottom of the ladder, and will face the fourth placed side in the Wildcard round which looms most likely to be Oakleigh Chargers or Sandringham Dragons depending on the result of the Round 17 clash between the two sides.

If predictions pan out…

Eastern, Gippsland and Sandringham have the bye in Wildcard Round.

Oakleigh Chargers vs. Geelong Falcons (winner plays Calder/Tasmania)
Calder Cannons vs. Tasmania Devils (winner plays Oakleigh/Geelong)
Northern Knights vs. GWV Rebels (winner plays Sandringham)
Western Jets vs. Bendigo Pioneers (winner plays Gippsland)
Dandenong Stingrays vs. Murray Bushrangers (winner plays Eastern)