IT all comes down to one game. The 2021/22 Norther Territory Football League (NTFL) Men’s Premier League Grand Final takes place tomorrow night after 18 rounds of regular season action, and three weeks of finals. The two sides – Waratah and St Mary’s – finished in third and second respectively, but after a series of upsets, find themselves in the last match of the year. We take a look at the sides and what might go down.

LAST TIME THEY MET:

St Mary’s 7.2 (44) defeated by Waratah 8.11 (59) @ TIO Stadium | Qualifying Final

One does not have to go too far back to find the last time these sides clashed, which was three weeks ago in the qualifying final. Not much separated these sides on the ladder, and Waratah came up with the goods, getting a 15-point win over the Saints. St Mary’s that flew out of the blocks early, piling on 5.1 to Waratah’s 3.2 at the first break. Looking like a high scoring contest, fans braced themselves for an end-to-end thriller, but St Mary’s only had one scoring shot to Waratah’s five in the second term, but still advanced the lead to 12 given it was 1.0 to 0.5. Out of nowhere, Waratah found its grove and slammed home 5.2 to 1.1 in the premiership quarter to lead 57-44 heading into the last quarter, and in an absolute armwrestle, kicked the only two behinds of the final stanza to win. 8.11 (59) to 7.2 (44).

By the final siren, Waratah had 13 more inside 50s and eight more clearances despite losing the hitouts by 22 and the tackles by 24. Their work at the ground ball gets (plus-22) and handball receives (plus-19) also told a story. James Munro racked up a match-high 27 disposals, five marks, five clearances, eight tackles, nine inside 50s, three rebound 50s and one goal. Jayden Magro (22 disposals, four clearances and four behinds) had plenty of chances in the win, whilst Corey Rich 18 disposals, five marks, three clearances and a goal) was also lively. Meanwhile it was no surprise to see Saints captain Nathaniel Paredes near the top of the stats list for St Mary’s, accumulating 23 disposals, eight clearances, eight tackles, four inside 50s and a goal.

TEAM STATISTICAL COMPARISON:

Both sides are predominant kick-to-handball sides, though the Saints run at more than double their kicks compared to handballs, and still use it pretty well, being one of the better sides in the league this season for kicking efficiency. The grand finalists averaged 64 per cent by foot, but the Tahs stood out by hand with an elite 84 per cent efficiency compared to St Mary’s still-impressive 79 per cent. Waratah had three less clangers per game compared to the rest of the competition, but St Mary’s are the stronger clearance side with more ground ball gets, contested possessions and of court, clearances. The Saints averaged four more inside 50s than their opponents, and put up 15 goals per game compared to the Tahs’ 13, though as we have seen this season, the finals have more often than not being lower scoring for the most part.

KEY CLASHES:

St Mary’s had a dominant midfield at full strength, with captain Paredes, ball-winner Dylan Landt and Josh Smithson a really strong inside group. They take on the likes of Abe Ankers, Robert Turnbull and Brodie Carroll, with the Tahs’ depth clear. The key for Waratah will be trying to contain competition leading goalkicker Jackson Calder who does not need many chances to make the opposition defence pay. Though if they can shut him down, then the only major other scorer from a forward perspective available is Nicholas Yarran. Paredes will be the third highest goalkicker for the Saints heading into the match, and no doubt Waratah will be keen to shut him down.

Daniel O’Dwyer is a key player in the defensive 50, leading his side for spoils with around three per game, and even more rebound 50s. If he, Amyas Ross and Nicholas Gooch can work well to contain the St Mary’s attack, then the Tahs will be well on their way to. victory. Up the other end, St Mary’s Jacob Long and Lucas Jellyman-Turner are in good form, with Matthew Green having a big preliminary final last week in that back 50. Magro and Rich are the key ones to watch for the Tahs inside 50, having great seasons in front of goal. though not having a dominant sole goalkicker like St Mary’s, they share the goals around with Carroll, Harrison Kitschke also getting amongst it.

TIP

Waratah might have that touch more depth compared to the Saints, and do have the winning momentum against them. However St Mary’s will not leave anything out there on the ground after two straight grand final losses, and that should spur them on if the match is tight. Saints in a thriller.

St Mary’s by three points.