VFLW Finals Calculator – who will make the top six?

THERE is just a single round remaining of the Home and Away portion of the 2022 VFLW season, and although there is only one week left, there is still so much yet to be decided.

Which six teams will make finals is still to be decided, plus which teams will finish where within the six is very much still up in the air, so let us look at the maths and see where your team might finish.

The equations do get more straight forward as you go down the ladder, but a result for any team may have plenty of implications depending on other results.

Now this will only look at the teams that are currently first to seventh on the ladder, because they are the only teams that can still make finals – Essendon, Hawthorn, Casey, Geelong, Southern Saints, Collingwood and North Melbourne.

Essendon – Currently 1st (11 wins, 2 draws, percentage 383.3%)

As much as Essendon have had a stellar season, there is still plenty to play for the Bombers this weekend.

They have Casey at home, and if they win, that’s the simple equation. They stay on top, no matter what happens to Hawthorn.

If the Bombers draw with the Dees, they will finish top two, but which one will come down to percentage and whether the Hawks get the win over Williamstown.

If they lose, they will likely still remain top two as Casey will draw level points with them but have to make up a huge chunk of percentage to make it ahead of the Bombers.

Hawthorn – Currently 2nd (11 wins, 1 loss, 1 draw, 386.8%)

Hawthorn also have plenty on the line this weekend, with a top two spot not yet secured for the brown and gold.

If they win and Essendon lose, they will go top. If both the Hawks and Bombers win, first and second will not change.

If they draw with Williamstown, they can still go top if Essendon lose, but it will come down to percentage.

A Hawks loss would mean they finish second or third, depending on the result of the Essendon vs Casey game.

Casey – Currently 3rd (11 wins, 2 losses, 223.7%)

The Dees will finish somewhere in the top three no matter what, but where in that trio remains to be seen.

If they beat Essendon, they can still go to the top of the ladder, but it is unlikely as a huge percentage gap would have to be bridged for that to happen.

If they draw with the Bombers, they will likely to stay in third even if the Hawks lose because the percentage gap between the two sides is just too great.

If they lose, they will stay in third. They can’t finish any lower then that.

Geelong – Currently 4th (9 wins, 4 losses, 157.6%)

Now the Cats will certainly be hoping that they are able to topple Collingwood on Saturday, because otherwise their final ladder position all comes down to the Southern Saints on Sunday.

Win on Saturday, and Geelong will finish fourth and still have the shot of earning themselves a double chance due to the unique way the VFLW finals run.

If they draw with the Pies, the Cats will finish either fourth or fifth, depending on if the Saints get over the top of the Roos.

If the Pies are victorious, the Cats will drop to fifth if the Saints get the win.

Southern Saints – Currently 5th (8 wins, 4 losses, 1 draw, 121.6%)

The Southern Saints are currently only half a game behind Geelong, so find themselves in a pretty similar situation to the Cats, but as the teams play on two different days the Saints may have their fate already sewn up by the time they run out onto Trevor Barker on Sunday.

Now they cannot drop below fifth, but can go up to fourth if they win or draw, depending on what happens in the Geelong v Collingwood game.

Collingwood – Currently 6th (7 wins, 6 losses, 93.4%)

It is a pretty simple equation for Collingwood on Saturday afternoon. Win or draw against the Cats, and they make finals, North cannot catch them.

If they lose, then things get more complicated.

If both the Pies and the Kangaroos lose, Collingwood make finals.

If Collingwood lose and North win, then it comes down to percentage as to who takes sixth spot.

North Melbourne – Currently 7th (6 wins, 7 losses, 76.7%)

It is an even more simple equation for North. Their only option if they want to play finals is it win, and they have to hope Geelong can do a number on Collingwood and the Pies’ percentage takes a beating. There’s currently a 16.7% gap in percentage between the teams, which is a fair bit of ground to make up so things looked stacked against North Melbourne on paper at the moment, but football is a weird game sometimes so do not five up home North fans.

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