HOME is where the heart is, and for St Kilda, it is also where the four points come from each week, with St Kilda continuing its home dominance with a massive upset win over premiership contenders, Brisbane Lions at RSEA Park. The Saint held sway throughout the match and went head-to-head in a thrilling final term to secure a 21-point win over the Season 6 premiers.

By taking home the four points in the 8.7 (55) to 5.4 (34) win, St Kilda leapfrogged Collingwood into ninth spot on the AFL Women’s table and sit just 4.8 per cent outside the top eight. The red, black and white must win their last match of the regular season against Carlton on the road, and hope one of Geelong (vs Hawthorn) or Sydney (vs Fremantle) at the very least, drop their Round 10 contest.

St Kilda’s season started on the rocks, losing its first three games of the year, including a heartbreaking eight-point loss to Port Adelaide at RSEA Park. But since then, the Saints have gone 5-2, including 4-0 at their homeground.

The above table shows St Kilda’s dominance at home compared to away, with almost double the percentage when at RSEA Park compared to away from RSEA Park. That, along with its sole away win being across the bay at Whitten Oval, and in general, St Kilda has been more comfortable in Victoria since its disappointing Round 1 thrashing at the hands of North Melbourne.

The big question mark for St Kilda is whether or not it can produce a similar performance against Carlton at Ikon Park. The Saints are still 5-2 in Victoria this season, and the Blues – who looked promising at the mid-season point – have fallen away and lost to Collingwood, GWS GIANTS and Essendon in the past three weeks to go from finals-bound to missing out.

What the Saints did so well against the Lions was dominate the clearances to shock the normally strong Brisbane midfield with a plus-12 clearance differential (35-23). Tyanna Smith (18 disposals, nine clearances) led the way, while Nat Exon (five clearances), Jaimee Lambert (four) and Georgia Patrikios (four) all stood up around the coalface.

Considering Carlton is a combined minus-42 the past three weeks (average of minus-14) in clearances identifies a clear weakness in the Blues lineup. If St Kilda can continue its impressive midfield display, the Saints will win it at the source, and provide plenty of chances for its forwards. Though it may not guarantee them a finals spot, the Saints can also try and snatch a top eight position on percentage if they can catch up.