2021 VNL deep dive: In the mix

WITH the remaining rounds of the 2021 Victorian Netball League season under question as lockdown measures continue throughout Victoria, we take this opportunity to delve into the eight Championship division teams and discover which team is the most well-rounded on the court. With limited statistics available, these notes are based on goals scored, accuracy and individual opinion. First up, we will take a look at the top four sides which have consistently remained thereabouts despite movement up and down each week.
City West Falcons W 10 / L 0 / D 1 For: 725 Against: 552 Percentage: 131.34%
Melbourne University Lightning W 9 / L 2 / D 0 For: 634 Against: 474 Percentage: 133.76%
Geelong Cougars W 8 / L 2 / D 1 For: 664 Against: 479 Percentage: 138.62%
Casey Demons W 6 / L 4 / D 0 For: 598 Against: 583 Percentage: 102.57%
Looking at the top four sides, it is evident just how potent the top three in particular have proven to be. City West are yet to drop a game with just a Round 1 draw with Geelong continuing to haunt them, while Melbourne Uni is holding on to second by the skin of its teeth following a couple of untimely losses over the most recent rounds of action. Cougars had a shaky start but have plodded on fairly consistently across the season, while Casey proved its reliance on a certain tall timber with a massive loss dumping them to the bottom of the four with a percentage to match. First up is ladder leader City West Falcons, with the side showcasing their intent and consistency week-in and week-out to shoot the lights out. Something notable about the Falcons though, is the high number of goals scored against them despite their high-powered defensive unit consisting of Zoe DaviesSarah Szczykulski and Melissa Oloamanu. With the goals against in mind, let’s quickly take a look at the goals scored – 61 more across the 11 rounds than the next best in Geelong Cougars. From this, it is safe to say that the speed with which the Falcons score – through pillar Jane Cook – allows other teams to apply a greater than average scoreline against them, purely due to having more centre passes throughout the game. From this, the Falcons’ percentage is not quite as convincing as Lightning’s or Cougars’, purely due to the second and third ranked sides’ ability to negate their opposition from scoring. Comparatively, Lightning sit in second on the ladder with a percentage of 133.76 – third overall – and the least amount of goals scored against them across the entire competition. Despite having two losses to their name, both have come in recent rounds and, when accounting for the season’s disruption, are certainly nothing significant for the powerful side to be worried about. Unlike the Falcons, the Lightning employ a shared tactic in the goal circle with Mikaela Vaughan and Claudia Mawson often evenly distributing the goals so as to not rely on just one player being shut down. With both players also able to shoulder the load when required, their workrate is somewhat similar to Geelong’s circle work, with Julia WoolleyZanna Woods and Bridgette Furphy as consistent as they come, able to rotate seamlessly and fire from range. The final team in the top four is Casey Demons, with the side perhaps the slightest bit less powerful than others in the top four purely due to their reliance on Emma Ryde at the post; if Ryde is shut down the side struggles to hit the scoreboard with the same ease, and without the short-range goaler at their disposal the Demons were almost immediately found out in their Round 11 clash with Melbourne Uni prior to the unprecedented break. Sacha McDonald has stepped up at times but has proved to be more of a playmaker than a major source of goals despite her accuracy to post, with her connection both inside and outside the circle impressive but not necessarily going to win games. While the Demons have still scored more goals than have been scored against them, that differential has grown smaller as teams have figured out ways to deny Ryde easy access to goals, making things very interesting if the season does get back up and running. Which other teams are potentially in the mix to create upsets?
Boroondara Express W 6 / L 5 / D 0 For: 591 Against: 580 Percentage: 101.9%
North East Blaze W 6 / L 5 / D 0 For: 614 Against: 650 Percentage: 94.46%
Two sides are knocking at top four contention, however with Ryde’s expected return and little separating the top three sides, it is unlikely that either Boroondara Express or North East Blaze are in with a realistic chance of making finals despite both sitting just one loss behind Casey on the ladder. In the more realistic hypothetical, Express would have a higher chance of entering the top four credit to their greater percentage, and also factoring in both the goals scored for and against with numbers similar to that of the Demons. Despite lacking consistency during the early stages of the season, Express have stepped up in recent rounds to provide a threat to the top sides’ finals chances, with their Round 10 victory over the Lightning sending warning signs to the competition. Like the Demons and Falcons, Express typically rely on one goal shooter stepping up to the plate with Uneeq Palavi a consistent performer, while sixth-ranked Blaze have a similar setup to the Lightning and Cougars, with a high-powered combination between Nyah Allen and Georgia Moody setting the tone, but a greater cumulative score against them due to Allen’s semi-regular Suncorp Super Netball training partner call-ups. Which teams remain?
Hawks W 3 / L 7 / D 0 For: 505 Against: 528 Percentage: 95.64%
Ariels W 3 / L 8 / D 0 For: 583 Against: 678 Percentage: 85.99%
Southern Saints W 1 / L 9 / D 0 For: 480 Against: 640 Percentage: 75.00%
Peninsula Waves W 0 / L 10 / D 0 For: 453 Against: 683 Percentage: 66.33%
Looking at the remaining four teams, and based off win records there is just about no chance of any making the finals. But with that being said, there are still some interesting notes to take from their ladder positioning and, in particular, their scoring and scored against numbers. Firstly, let’s take a look at the Hawks, who are one game behind much of the competition, but still have the least goals scored against them throughout their 10 games. Factor in that the Hawks have only won three games, and it is safe to say that these stats prove the defensive capability of the Hawks throughout the season and ability to keep their opposition to low scores. If the Hawks could fine tune their front-end connection and accuracy, they are well on their way to developing a really powerful team, with ball-winners across the court. The Ariels sit on the same win count as the Hawks, and if they had had Rahni Samason‘s prowess to post throughout the whole season, perhaps their record would be a fraction better. With more goals scored but one more game played and a shakier percentage than the Hawks, the Ariels’ position on the ladder is not quite indicative of their season form. Finally, let’s take a look at the bottom two sides in Southern Saints and Peninsula, with the Saints’ one win coming against the Waves back in Round 8. Having scored more goals and denied more from their opposition, there is no questioning Saints’ positioning in ninth ahead of Peninsula, however both sides have struggled to gain momentum and consistency across the interrupted season and, realistically, against high-powered and classy opposition. While both have occasionally challenged some of the higher ranked teams and tested them in patches, cohesion across the court and turnover counts have been real kickers for the bottom two sides, which have been dealt their fair share of tests throughout the season.
Picture credit: Netball Victoria
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