IN a new article for the 2022 Vitality Netball Superleague (VNSL) season, Rookie Me Central will take a look at Club Power Rankings. The rankings will focus on goal difference (starting with last season’s goal difference) to predict the results in each match. Then, from the actual results, teams will either gain or lose points if they achieved the predicted goal difference. Naturally as teams win by more, the expected goal difference will increase, and vice-versa for the losers. From this point on, the calculations are focusing on the 2022 expected wins and goals.

>> FULL EXAMPLE OF CALCULATIONS

ROUND 5 POWER RANKINGS

#1 Manchester Thunder (-)

The ladder leaders retain their spot at the top of the VNSL Club Power Rankings without surprise. Though they lost a couple of points in a tighter-than-expected win over Saracens Mavericks (three goals instead of five), the Thunder easily made it up the 20-goal thrashing of Wasps, gaining nine points back and moving 10 clear of Loughborough Lightning in second.

#2 Loughborough Lightning (-)

Though London Pulse are gaining on the reigning premiers, Loughborough Lightning maintain second spot with a 13-goal win over Strathclyde Sirens. The 12-goal expected win tally looked to be tough to obtain given the potential of the Sirens, but the Lightning not only did that, but they cleared it to keep four points ahead of the Pulse.

#3 London Pulse (-)

Continuing to move steadily up the table, the Pulse proved far too good for Celtic Dragons romping to a 13-goal win. With the expected margin at 9.5, the Pulse made 3.5 points on that, and are now easily in third and quickly approaching second spot.

#4 Saracens Mavericks (-)

Picking up a couple of points against top of the table Manchester Thunder is important as the Mavericks remained in the top four despite the loss to the Thunder. The Mavericks are on 14.45 points for the season, and 15 points from third, but nine points clear of fifth as well with Bath dropping back a touch.

#5 Team Bath (-)

Bath have dropped back a bit in recent weeks, and it continued again with only a narrow win over Severn Stars. Though still maintaining a positive 5.2 points on the Power Rankings ladder and sitting fifth, the blue and gold side did lose 4.5 points from the three-goal win over the Stars in what was an expected 7.5 or more goal victory.

#6 Surrey Storm (+1)

The quiet achiever of the competition this far, and the big win over Leeds Rhinos has seen the Storm move up a spot yet again. After rising three spots in the last round, Storm has moved into sixth spot, and is within touching distance of Team Bath. Surrey is only 0.22 points away from Bath and fifth placed if it can continue its form.

#7 Strathclyde Sirens (-1)

Strathclyde Sirens only dropped the one point after a 13-goal loss to Loughborough Lightning – expected 12-goal loss – but are still fairly comfortable where they sit. The Scottish side is -6.60 for the season, but still around nine points clear of the bottom four, but 10 points adrift of the top six.

#8 Severn Stars (+1)

Another side that bounced up with a great performance into eighth, and their nearest rival had the biggest loss (from a points perspective) of the weekend. Severn Stars gained 4.5 points against Team Bath despite actually losing to the highly-touted side, with the expected loss at 7.5, so the three-goal defeat was quite admirable.

#9 Leeds Rhinos (-1)

The heavy nine-goal upset loss to Surrey Storm – when it was an anticipated two-goal win to the Rhinos – really hurt and Leeds dropped back another spot with 11 points lost. The Rhinos are still six points clear of the bottom two, but will want to make up some ground as the teams above them start to get away.

#10 Celtic Dragons (-)

Still avoiding the bottom of the table despite being the only winless side, the Dragons did drop some points with a 13-goal loss to London Pulse. The Dragons were tipped to lose by 9.5 goals, but went down by 13, costing them 3.5 on the Power Rankings ladder. They did not move though, and with Rhinos and Wasps either side of them having larger drops, the Dragons actually better positioned themselves heading into Round 6.

#11 Wasps Netball (-)

Retaining last spot, Wasps Netball came in late to the round with a Monday night fixture, but really struggled against the impressive Manchester Thunder. The Thunder were predicted to win by 11, but got home by 20, which saw the Wasps drop nine points and are now around eight points behind Celtic Dragons and will be hoping for improvement in the coming rounds.