WE are down to the last two rounds of the 2022 AFLW season, so attention is now shifting to the finals series. Fans and pundits alike are doing the maths to see what respective sides need to do to either make the top six, top four, or top two. Let us take a look and see where your side might potentially finish at the end of the home-and-away season.

All of what you are about to read is heavily dependent on percentage, so everything discussed here is purely on a wins-loss basis.

Firstly, let’s look at the sides who are already out of finals contention. As things stand, Geelong, Richmond, St Kilda and West Coast cannot make finals. Carlton and GWS technically can, but a whole lot would have to go right for them. They would have to win both games, and Collingwood would have to lose both, with the Western Bulldogs Gold Coast Suns having to drop at least one.

Speaking of the Dogs and Suns, the draw they recently shared may come back to haunt them.

They both sit a game and a half outside the top six, so would have to win both of their last two matches in order to sneak in. If Collingwood wins even only one of its last two matches though, it’s curtains for both contenders. If the aforementioned match had not been a draw, it would have made the final six race much more interesting, because it could have potentially come down to percentage as to who made the final six – rather than the improbable win-loss scenarios.

Now into the current top six sides.

Collingwood currently sits in sixth on the five wins.

If the Magpies win either one or both of their next games, perfect – they’re in the finals. If they lose both however, they have to pray that neither the Suns or Bulldogs win both of their respective last two games. They can’t finish higher then third, simply because of how many of the teams above them still have matches to come against each other.

Next up, North Melbourne. The Kangaroos currently sit in fifth on percentage, but are equal third on wins.

The good thing for North fans, and any other teams further up the ladder, is they have already qualified for finals. Even if they lose both of their final two matches, they can’t drop out of the top six.

The question now is where in the six do they finish.

If the Roos win both of their final two games, they can’t finish lower then fourth and they will finish higher than Brisbane. They need Melbourne to drop a game and have more wins and a higher percentage then Fremantle and Melbourne to be higher.

If they win only one match, they will likely finish fifth.

If they lose both of their final matches, they will finish in either fifth or sixth, depending on how many games Collingwood end up winning.

It’s a similar situation for Brisbane, who currently sit in fourth, but due to its better percentage than the other teams around them, the Lions are still in the mix for top two if they win both of their last two matches.

Now, onto Fremantle, which currently sits in third. The Dockers’ entire season hinges on this weekend’s clash with Melbourne. Win, and their hopes for top two are still alive. Lose, with Adelaide beating Collingwood, and they can’t make the top two.

Speaking of the Dees, if they win only one of their last two matches, they will host their first final. The question will then be whether it’s in week one or week two of the post-season.

If they lose both of their last two matches, they can’t make the top two. It’s as simple as that – their percentage cannot currently work in their favour.

It’s a similar story for the Crows, but percentage can be their friend if worse comes to worse.

Even if they somehow lost both their final two matches, they have a significant percentage buffer on every other team that they should be able to still hold on to a top two position.