THE ENTRANCE of a Tasmanian team to the AFL by 2027 is set to impact the draft and recruiting space to no end in the coming years, perhaps even as soon as this year. Adding an extra layer of intrigue is the emergence of strong native prospects, who can potentially now represent their state at the top level.

In particular, gun midfielders Colby McKercher and Ryley Sanders are products of the Apple Isle being pegged as top 10 candidates. They racked up 40 and 39 disposals respectively as the Allies ran riot on Sunday, with the pair emerging as this year’s best two genuine midfielders.

It begs the question, then, of whether AFL clubs will be wary of the potential to lose either talent when considering where to spend their top 10 selections. There are are bunch of arguments both for and against the notion, which we aim to break down with a glimpse of either side of the coin.

THE MAP

On top of the understandable attachment to home and family that many draft prospects hold, Tasmanians often have a deeper connection to where they’re from. Just tune into a rousing three-quarter time speech from any Devils Under 18 coach, and you’ll come to realise that.

The famous Tasmanian map, which is plastered on the state’s guernsey, is an iconic part of its footballing history. Devils girls coach Jodie Clifford spoke of its significance during preseason, with the intention of using it to spur instil pride and the prospect of opportunity in her troops.

“Our leadership group will do a little bit of research and background into what Tasmanian football history means, she said. “What does it mean to wear the map?

“What I really see it as is that our girls have the opportunity to create history… I think the map is something that the girls are really proud about.”

Should players like McKercher and Sanders be approached by the new Tasmanian team, with a couple of years in the top flight likely already under their belt, the opportunity to don state colours once again may prove to be one of the more alluring factors.

At risk of looking too far ahead, emerging stars of their ilk, along with those drafted out of the Apple Isle in recent years, will be right in the firing line to propose a fairytale move back home. The chance to grow their state’s inaugural side and potentially captain it to glory one day loom as huge selling points.

GO HOME FACTOR

Coming into this year and every other year before that, Tasmanian draft hopefuls have been resigned to the fact they would have to move away from home to play in the AFL. McKercher said during preseason he had “come to terms” with it, though held “no preference” to any club or state.

Heck, the 18-year-old doesn’t even support an AFL side. His position could well have changed now that his home state will host a team, though. He is already getting a taste of being the Tassie Devils’ star man this year, albeit in the Under 18 Coates Talent League side.

Sanders is perhaps stationed further the other way considering he has already moved out of Tasmania. Currently boarding at Melbourne Grammar, he hasn’t donned the famous Map since 2021 and instead turns out for the Sandringham Dragons. His version of representative football is now with the Allies.

Another Tasmanian in the frame is National Academy member Jack Callinan. The son of former Adelaide forward, Ian is a Crows supporter and spent part of his childhood in South Australia. It’s a unique factor which could provide pull away from Tasmania.

Perhaps more than anything, clubs are after safety in their yearly investments – draftees. They will do their due diligence and poke at all the above queries for each player, to come to the conclusion of whether any of their investments are at risk of changing value once Tasmania enters the AFL fold.

It’s exactly the same when they weigh up recruiting players from any other state – no matter where they are based. While jaded, overused, and perhaps now cliched, the ‘go home factor’ is one which will always be considered in draft circles.

DRAFT STRATEGY

Rebuilding clubs are always looking for midfielders at the draft, though this year’s pool does not shape as one with many at the top end – aside from McKercher and Sanders. Should clubs assess the factors above and deem them – for want of a better word – too risky, they may well adjust their strategy.

That’s where next year’s crop comes in. On the same weekend where the aforementioned pair racked up 79 disposals between them, a trio of Vic Metro midfielders topped their side’s charts. Namely, they were Levi Ashcroft, Jagga Smith, and Josh Smillie.

Ashcroft is tied to Brisbane, but the latter two are already touted atop the tree for 2024’s intake. That’s not to mention Sid Draper, who was the only Croweater to collect more than 20 touches in the same game, and 2022 Under 16 MVP Finn O’Sullivan, who is set to turn out for Vic Country on Sunday.

There is plenty more depth in next year’s on-ball department too. The likes of Tom Gross and Archer Day-Wicks loom as exciting types, while Sam Lalor is an absolute bull on the inside. Then there’s Christian Moraes, Zak Johnson, and Nash King to name a few more – and that’s just the Victorian crop.

It means that the conundrum on whether to roll the dice on Tasmanians in the wake of the state’s incoming team may be answered for clubs. They could instead look to invest in key position talent this year with the focus on midfielders coming in 2024.

Though, that may work the other way and boost the value of McKercher and Sanders this year. They are arguably the only genuine midfielders considered top 10 chances, so recruiters will likely clamour for them with the factor of weaker depth in mind.

The options are clear; back yourself to keep the talent you draft this year, or hedge your bets and wait for the potential wealth of midfielders next year.