IT all comes down to today, the final day of the regular season in the AFL Women’s. Three more games, and all will have been decided for next week’s finals series.

1:05pm
Ikon Park

Finals calculations

The Blues can still technically make finals, but percentage may prove their undoing even if they win today, as they need the Swans, Saints and Magpies all to lose. The Saints on the other hand are very much still in the running for finals with only the Swans losing – or catching Sydney’s percentage – required for them to make the post-season series.

History

The history between these sides reads much prettier for the Blues than it does the Saints. These two sides have played four times, with Carlton winning all four times.

Key Stat Areas

Carlton tend to handball the ball more than kick it, while St Kilda is the opposite.

St Kilda is significantly weaker in the uncontested game than it is in the contested, so that is definitely somewhere to exploit for the Blues today.

While for St Kilda, the Saints know Carlton’s inside 50 efficiency is significantly worse than its own.

Key Match Up/s

Gabriella Pound vs Jesse Wardlaw

Wardlaw is absolutely crucial to the attacking play of the Saints, so Pound or whoever ends up on her is going to have a big afternoon. Her aerial game is a big weapon and should be the focus for whichever defender ends up on her.

Breann Moody vs Bianca Jakobsson

Up the other end, Moody plays a similar role for the Blues and provides that target for feeds inside 50. Jakobsson is shorter than Moody but has the reach to match it with the star Blue.

Mimi Hill vs Jaimee Lambert

The starting cogs of their respective midfields, these two play a crucial role in the success of their teams in the midfield. Both are also hard at the contest and hugely competitive, so will not stop until success for their team has been earned.

3:05pm
Victoria Park

Finals calculations

The Pies are very much still in the running for finals, but percentage may prove a problem even if they get the win today. Collingwood needs the Saints and Swans to lose.

For the Tigers on the other hand, they can still technically make finals but are even less likely than the Magpies as they would need to overtake Carlton’s percentage and have the Blues win narrowly, while the Swans and Saints also lose.

History

These two sides have met twice prior, with Collingwood having won by both games by at least a few goals.

Key Stat Areas

Collingwood has been getting more inside 50s than the Tigers this season, but once inside 50 the Tigers have been more efficient than the Pies.

Similarly Collingwood has been doing much better in the hit outs than the Tigers, but the Tigers have the much better clearance figures.

Key Match Up/s

Brianna Davey vs Monique Conti

Two of the top midfielders of the competition for a reason, it has been a few years since they have battled it out on a footy field. If one can be kept to a quiet, that will provide a huge boost to their opponent’s team.

Sarah Rowe vs Beth Lynch

The speedy outside wingers, the run these two provide is going to be very handy for their respective sides today. Lynch is not normally a winger, but as she proved against Geelong can provide plenty of handy run which will be a huge asset further up the ground.

Ash Brazill vs Katie Brennan

Brennan plays a huge part in the link between Richmond’s midfielders and forwards, so Brazill has a big job to do today. But, the star Pie certainly has the experience and skill set to match it with the Tigers’ skipper.

5:05pm
Fremantle Oval

Finals calculations

The Dockers can still mathematically make finals, but do need a lot to go right for them. The least likely from a potential finalist perspective, they need Carlton to beat St Kilda by as minimal as possible, Richmond to beat Collingwood by as minimal as possible, and then smash Sydney themselves just to catch the 15 per cent of the Blues.

The Swans on the other hand have their destiny completely in their own hands. Win, and they will play finals in just their second season in existence.

History

These two teams did play during Sydney’s inaugural season last year, with the Dockers coming away victorious by 14 points.

Key Stat Areas

A huge weapon for the Swans they have to exploit Fremantle today is in the uncontested game. With plus-376 disposal advantage, the Swans really have the chance to exploit the Dockers on the outside.

However, Fremantle has a chance to exploit the Swans on the clearance, because despite Sydney having the significantly better hitouts figure, the Dockers are the ones doing much better on the clearances.

Key Match Up/s

Megan Kauffman vs Lucy McEvoy

At the back end of this season Kauffman is proving how much of a goal sneak she can be, so is certainly someone the Swans cannot forget about today. McEvoy or whoever ends up on her will always have to make sure they know where she is, and be prepared to try and out mark her.

Hayley Miller vs Chloe Molloy

Although not initially listed to line up on each other, it is surely only a matter of time before they both find their way to the midfield and to each other as one on one opponents. Both star midfielders, and both strong clearance winners, so both are absolutely crucial cogs in their team’s midfield success.

Kiara Bowers vs Tanya Kennedy

Although it has been a bit of an up and down season for Bowers, she is still absolutely a massive threat that the Swans need to take care of. Thankfully for them they have Kennedy, who can match Bowers for pace and muscle power.