TWO entertaining finals are set across both weekend days in the opening round of the post-season series for AFL Sydney’s Women’s Premier Division. The winner of Manly and Parramatta goes on to face East Coast for a spot in the decider, while there is no turning back for the loser of North Shore and Sydney Uni.

MANLY WARRINGAH WOLVES vs. PARRAMATTA GOANNAS
Saturday, August 31 @ 1:30pm
Blacktown International Sportspark

Both teams deserve the double chance and deserve the ladder position, however both will be looking to improve on elements from last week. The third placed Goannas sat back on their heels in the final parts of the game against UTS last round, as the Bates really exposed a huge weakness in Parramatta’s defence of full field running and linkage play, but could not capitalise through the big sticks.

Equally, whilst the scoreboard looked pretty for Manly with a thumping victory, at times it was anything but convincing, they were just in front of St George for the first 10 minutes and fingertips away from being even after 10. The game will be a classic matchup of basic football being the determining factor.

Whoever gets the football first and more often will gain the pressure advantage and one expect an enormous amount of contested football and repeat stoppages, but not necessarily in the same spot, but one play away.

Zara Hamilton and both Caitlin Fletcher and Amanda Farrugia are too good at single extractions, and on the bigger ground there will be more space for initial movement. Thus, the key will be the running linkages and the secondary action one play off the contest. Both teams will want to burst away from stoppage if possible as the first priority, but change the field position as second priority, and then force the pressure to create repeated forward 50 opportunities.

That is also where Parramatta’s Kiera Yerbury will be pivotal. She has not been tackled with footy in possession in three games, and it is all to do with her footwork and evasiveness. Her confidence level has grown exponentially in the latter part of the season. It has set up many forward thrusts, with the only downside being that the players down downfield have yet to provide deliberate and strong targets.

Lauren O’Sullivan as a deep forward has been much more proactive and confident in the last four rounds, attacking the footy with much more gusto. Expect to see O’Sullivan as the deepest player.

The other big factor for Parramatta is missing Sophie Kavanagh who was announced as an AFLW replacement player during the week. She created the X-factor of run and finishing when given the ball, that really created a spark in the forwardline. For Manly, a key note will be to watch the last quarter of the Parramatta-UTS game last week and watch the tagging and tactical job the Bats did on Fletcher.

She was only allowed to even attempt to pick up the ball in a defensive 50 facing direction, otherwise they just shut her down and it drove the Parramatta’s offence to a standstill. If they utilise that element and similar tactics on all midfielders, then expect to see them displaying the number one player defence/ pressure team in the league.

When they are at full strength, the Wolves are the most athletic team in the league and the opposition must be on their game at the coal face level to bring any inside football extraction at all. Up forward, Isabella Rudolph has been in revelation form over the last two rounds and will need careful guarding deep forward. However Manly’s greatest weakness over the last few rounds has been their linkage football.

The Wolves hit a huge wall with kicking and linkages about six rounds ago, and it will be very interesting to see whether strong decision making and evasion before delivery has been improved and inbuilt into their play. The Big X-factor for the game is the form of recently long term injured Sera Kaukiono. She has come back and been a little rusty compared to her best, displaying less run or line-breaking application to her game compared to usual. Look out if she explodes with confidence and enthusiasm.

Manly to win in a thriller by under a kick.

NORTH SHORE BOMBERS vs. SYDNEY UNIVERSITY
Sunday, September 1 @ 1:30pm
Blacktown International Sportspark

The do-or-die elimination game will be very, very even and the result will come down to whether Sydney Uni has been watching the last two rounds. North Shore is missing some influence in the middle and the Students had a section in the middle of the year where teams let them get small extraction handballs away until they found a runner and then drove the ball downfield.

That allowed them to run and drive pressure that forced repeat entry scores that was just too much for some other teams. But their offensive play has been brought to a virtual standstill by both UNSW all match and UTS late in the final round. Their universal team and major individual player weakness of being repeatedly fumbly around the ball when faced with defensive pressure has come to the fore and has been highlighted for all to see.

UNSW forced plenty of turnovers at Henson Park due to pressure, as did UTS, which all resulted in a virtual standstill of offensive performance for the Bombers in the last quarter. Sydney Uni have been very good recently and rightfully earned its way into this final with a nice win against Parramatta and a very respectable performance against the ladder leaders East Coast in the final round.

For rising star Kendra Blattman, watching the vision of her first quarter head-to-head with Caitlin Reid, she tried to physically battle the ruck contests for the entire first quarter, but from the very first bounce in the second quarter, she decided to run into the contest, use her outstanding vertical leap and reach, and push the ball clear and forward. That specifically began a run of rolling possessions of forward movement from the Students and they capitalised with four goals, and looked good in doing so. That area is the first key to this game.

North Shores’ recent ruck work has been very good at evening out the contests with Steph Krauel arguably the most valuable player of Rounds 13-16 and North Shore’s turning the competition on its head. Thus, Blattman needs to run and jump into every contest and force North Shore to find a way to stop it, and Sydney Uni needs to make sure it does not get drawn into the tight battle, and get the ball clear and moving their way.

For the Bombers, their couple of keys to watch for are firstly Lucy Yates. She has had an excellent season and is a mobile, agile and tough player who gets the ball forward with regularity. However, If she gets their best player, the Bombers lose. So much work around the midfield contests gets forced onto her shoulders, that she must have other step up and carry the in-tight work load, otherwise Jasmine Smith and others will eventually take control of the central areas.

Secondly the work of Elle Carroll and Zoe Hurrell in defence. Both have had excellent seasons and might just have enough rebounding and intercepting marking opportunities to thwart the scoreboard opportunities for the students.

Expect a close game that could go to extra time or Sydney Uni to cause an upset if the Students can pressure the Bombers enough.