THE AFL Sydney Women’s Premier Division season comes down to a repeat of last year’s script, with Manly Warringah Wolves and Sydney University meeting again in a preliminary final for the right to face North Shore Bombers in the grand final.

AFL Sydney Women’s Premier Division

PRELIMINARY FINAL FIXTURE:

Manly Warringah Wolves vs. Sydney University | Preliminary Final | Saturday September 12, 1:10pm @ Bruce Purser Reserve

It is an identical fixture to 2025’s preliminary final, when Sydney University got the better of Manly before falling to North Shore a week later. Both sides arrive having gone the distance last weekend, with the Bombers needing extra time to see off the Wolves and the Students snatching a one-point classic over UNSW-ES, and both will hope this weekend’s contest is decided with a little less drama.

Manly deserves to start as favourite on the balance of the season, but a nagging trend follows the Wolves into this one. They are yet to win a finals match across the past few seasons and are rarely in front when games get tight in September, and last week’s extra-time loss to North Shore fit the pattern. Manly won the disposal count, the clearances and the hitouts against the Bombers, but could not turn that dominance into scoreboard control when it mattered most. Whatever is stopping the Wolves’ proactivity from putting sides away needs to be found in the next week.

Sydney University’s read on this one comes from how differently the two halves of last week’s semi-final played out. Through a frantic opening period of finals football, extraction possessions were hitting the deck almost as soon as they were won, and there was next to no linkage on offer. Once the game opened up and the Students were afforded time and space, they were able to string together genuine coast-to-coast chains that produced scores. Matching Manly is going to require sharper second and third efforts and more proactive positioning off the ball from the opening bounce, rather than waiting for the game to loosen up.

The most telling factor could be what happens straight from the opening centre bounce. If Manly bursts clear and establishes forward-half dominance early, the Wolves are the likely winners. If Manly’s athletic swarm defence holds up as it has all finals series, Sydney University’s best route through is forcing stalemates at the coalface and doing damage on the rebound from turnover ball rather than trying to win primary use outright. Bruce Purser Reserve should suit both approaches, with the ground’s dimensions allowing for one-possession running exits and direct shots on goal that both sides will be actively hunting.

There is also a handful of players from both sides on the cusp of announcing themselves on the big stage. Frances Walsh and Evie Bowie look close to that moment for Sydney University, while Lauren Bull and Ava Barraclough carry the same potential for Manly. Whichever of these developing talents backs up the established names and embraces the occasion could prove the difference in a tight contest.

Manly’s biggest internal question is getting more out of Kenya Fahey. She remains a 12-possession player who tends to exit the ball towards goal rather than take the game on herself, and there is a case for the Wolves to unleash her more directly – backing the most explosive athlete on the ground to burst through congestion, win her own footy and play with more of a front-foot mentality rather than waiting her turn.

For Sydney University, the challenge is not being fazed by the pressure that is coming –-Manly’s forward-half defensive work has been a hallmark of its finals campaign. Quick, pinpoint release passes to space while Manly’s defenders are still turning around will be crucial, and there is a lesson in how Isabella Rudolph was kept goalless last week by Chloe Davis‘ reads and rebound that both defensive units could look to replicate against the opposition’s respective focal points.

Both sides would do well to find central footy rather than continually flowing play to the wings without a foothold in the middle, and neither can afford to wait on the tackle. Winning first use of the ball through hard, contested efforts – rather than hoping a stoppage falls their way – shapes as essential preparation regardless of the result, given a meeting with a North Shore side that thrives on quick hands and instant disposal awaits the winner in the Grand Final.

Two young, hungry groups, a rematch of last year’s Preliminary Final, and a Grand Final berth on the line – Bruce Purser Reserve should host an entertaining contest either way. Manly by three goals.