NTFLW: The 2024/25 finals fight

HALF a dozen teams will compete for five NTFL Women’s Premier Division spots, and though four of those sides are locked in, each of the five spots within the finals series is still very much up for grabs with a fortnight remaining. While the Men’s Premier Division finals series is essentially sorted, the women’s is open and we look at what could happen for each side.

1st | St Mary’s (13-2 | 52 points | 318.39%)

Opponents: Bye, Southern Districts

St Mary’s grabbed back top spot with the inspirational win over PINT last round thanks to the Saints’ incredible percentage of greater than 300. While their percentage cannot be caught, unfortunately having one less game in hand means PINT is set to overtake them this round. St Mary’s will not have any troubles against Southern Districts, but will drop down with a PINT win this weekend. Disaster would be somehow losing to the Crocs, while Nightcliff won both and made up the extra percentage difference.

Prediction: 2nd | 14-2 | 56 points

2nd | PINT (13-1 | 52 points | 236.83%)

Opponents: Tiwi Bombers, Wanderers

PINT might have lost top spot, but the Queen Ants just need to beat Tiwi Bombers in order to grab it back. They should be able to do that, though the Bombers have been tricky at times, while the winless Wanderers have not looked like coming close to any side let alone the premiership favourites. Still, the Bombers are the focus up first and two wins guarantee the Queen Ants a week off in the first week of finals.

Prediction: 1st | 15-1 | 60 points

3rd | Nightcliff (11-3 | 44 points | 290.73%)

Opponents: Darwin Buffaloes, Palmerston Magpies

Nightcliff looms as the team set to break hearts, with a virtual elimination final for its opponent Darwin this weekend. If the Tigers get up, then the Buffs are eliminated from finals contention, doing the Magpies and Bombers a solid. However it also keeps the Tigers in with a shot that if somehow St Mary’s lost to Southern Districts, that they could catch the Saints’ percentage. Nightcliff should earn the double chance with a nice final round finals atmosphere battle against the Magpies.

Prediction: 3rd | 13-3 | 52 points

4th Tiwi Bombers (8-7 | 32 points | 144.53%)

Opponents: PINT, Bye

Like St Mary’s having one less game in hand heading into the last fortnight has not helped, wiht the Bombers now at the mercy of others realistically. Not only do they take on the hungry PINT desperate to take back top spot, but then suffer a bye in the last round. A lower percentage than the Magpies means Palmerston just needs to beat Waratah in order to leapfrog the Bombers. One positive is Darwin wuld need to upset Nightcliff and make up significant percentage for the Bombers to drop out.

Prediction: 5th | 8-8 | 32 points

5th Palmerston Magpies (7-7 | 28 points | 172.51%)

Opponents: Waratah, Nightcliff

Palmerston Magpies just need one victory to secure a finals spot, and realistically home knockout final against the Bombers. Tiwi looms unlikely to beat PINT, but if it does, then the Magpies can grab fourth by upsetting Nightcliff given Tiwi cannot respond due to its final round bye. The bigger key is making finals, so providing Nightcliff defeat Darwin – or they beat Waratah – then finals are locked in.

Prediction: 4th | 8-8 | 32 points

6th Darwin Buffaloes (6-8 | 24 points | 118.80%)

Opponents: Nightcliff, Waratah

Darwin has elements outside its control to reach the finals series, playing the same teams as fifth placed Palmerston. If Darwin wins both it is in with a shot, but even one loss will be the end due to the difference between the Magpies and Buffs. Worse still, if Palmerston just defeats Waratah that will be enough to eliminate Darwin, so the Buffs are a very rough chance to squeeze in.

Prediction: 6th | 7-9 | 28 points

OTHERS

The remaining three sides are locked into their respective positions due to the gap between each of the teams. Waratah will finish seventh with Southern Districts eighth, while the currently winless Wanderers will receive the wooden spoon.

POTENTIAL FINALS WEEK 1:

St Mary’s vs Nightcliff
Palmerston Magpies vs. Tiwi Bombers

Bye: PINT (to play winner of St Mary’s vs Nightcliff in the second week for a spot in the grand final)

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