IT is the great debate every year in AFL Draft circles. Just last year, the fiercely close race between Jason Horne-Francis and Nick Daicos divided many recruiters, fans and club folk alike, so how is the race to be crowned number one shaping up in 2022?

>> The race to be number one: 2021 edition

With the first full Under 18 National Championships since 2019 winding down, a consensus frontrunner seems to have one hand on the throne. Namely, Will Ashcroft is the player who has just about become undeniable as the best draft prospect the nation has to offer.

Much like in 2021, he is the dominant, number busting father-son talent turning heads at the highest possible levels. While Daicos before him was managed heavily throughout his junior journey, Ashcroft has taken on each opportunity presented to him – including stepping up to VFL level.

>> Throwback: 22 to watch in 2022

Brisbane Lions fans will have been pleased to see their club-tied candidate in the maroon, blue and gold, although Ashcroft is yet to decide on his nomination status. That makes the question of who end up number one all the more intriguing, given the slight chance he could be available to another club.

As it stands, North Melbourne holds pick one and may well claim two of the top three selections come draft time, should the Kangaroos’ bid for a priority pick be passed. Having stuck to their guns and opted against a bid on Daicos or Sam Darcy last year, they would be considerably daft to do the same with Ashcroft this year.

West Coast is the other club in the mix to hold pick one, with the Eagles sitting second-last. While traditionally quite unfamiliar with taking high picks at the draft, they have shown nothing to suggest home-grown talent is all they will look for – just ask Chris Judd, Andrew Gaff, and Campbell Chesser.

With that in mind, we take a look at the top pick contenders, what makes them all so good, and why clubs like North Melbourne and West Coast would consider them for such honours.

THE TOP CONTENDERS:

Will Ashcroft (Sandringham Dragons/Vic Metro) BL F/S
6/05/2004 | 180cm | 76kg | Midfielder

Spoiler alert, this kid is the best in the country right now. If it wasn’t previously apparent, it is now. Ashcroft came in at number two in both Rookie Me Central Power Rankings updates this year, but has proven undeniable for top spot after sparkling National Championships form. His consistent ability to be the most dominant player afield, and rack up ridiculous numbers puts him in a similar category to the likes of Sam Walsh and Daicos before him. Having already graduated from high school, the first year uni student has dominated NAB League level and more than held his own against senior players in the VFL. He owns both the Daicos and Horne-Francis sides of the coin in that regard – dominant against his peers, but able against men. Scary to think. Lions fans will hope he nominates as a father-son, but he could pull a Marc Murphy-like move yet. North Melbourne and West Coast will be sweating on that.

George Wardlaw (Oakleigh Chargers/Vic Metro)
18/07/2004 | 182cm | 81kg | Midfielder

Have we forgotten about someone here? Fear not, the ‘Warden’ remains in the mix and – at least in our eyes – falls to number two, although through no fault of his own. Our top ranked prospect over the last two months, Wardlaw has had to sit out some of the most important fixtures of his top-age campaign with a hamstring injury, but fortunately has plenty of runs on the board. The on-baller returned blinding testing results during preseason, started strongly for Oakleigh and St Kevin’s, and even took out best afield honours for the AFL Academy against Collingwood VFL – a game which Ashcroft also played in. Considered an ideal teammate and professional, Wardlaw has added real weapons to his game which compliment the effort and hard edge he provides consistently. When he gets back on the park, he’ll continue to give Ashcroft a real push.

IF NOT THEM, THEN WHO?

Coming into the year, there was a consensus quartet of players in the mix for number one contendership. Along with Ashcroft and Wardlaw, Elijah Tsatas and Harry Lemmey were considered among the top of the tree.

Like Oakleigh Chargers teammate Wardlaw, Tsatas began his season strongly at both NAB League and school football level before injury struck. Playing on both sides of midfield, he put up terrific numbers and showcased much of the class which had him in the mix. While athletically gifted and wickedly skilled, he still arguably remains a step behind his two fellow Victorians.

Then there’s the curious case of Lemmey. Having broken through to play in West Adelaide’s League team as early as last year, the tall forward has largely looked a shadow of his bottom-aged self. Though a couple of solid games have suggested he has first round talent, early interruptions and wavering form seem to have dented the bigman’s confidence.

How about the West Australians. The Eagles, and any other club with a strong trade hand, could also feasibly end up with pick one. State skipper Elijah Hewett was tagged as the state’s best prospect coming into the year and has largely delivered on expectations, albeit with a couple of quiet state games. He kicked off his carnival with a blinder, don’t forget.

The midfielder has a terrific mix of speed and endurance, loves to compete, and has senior experience. All appealing factors. In a draft class bereft of key defensive options, Jedd Busslinger is clearly the pick of the bunch. He is set to undergo season-ending shoulder surgery, but has done enough to suggest he could end up in the top five range – maybe even tempting a club right up the top.

Filling out the top five, it seems Vic Country captain Jhye Clark is a lock. Reliable as ever, the tenacious ball winner has a raft of appealing attributes which have him pegged as the Joel Selwood of 2022’s offering.

There’s Mattaes Phillipou too, South Australia’s best offering. The Eagles product is an exciting midfielder-forward with graceful athleticism, great overhead marking and an eye for goal. Adelaide Crows fans will be begging for the flair he and Tsatas offer.

Add Harry Sheezel to that mix. Another talent out of the Sandringham Dragons footy factory, the crafty forward has proven his value as a midfielder this year but is a certified game-winner inside 50. All of the above have traits which could propel them to top spot, but there’s still a little more to play out.