ALL ROADS lead to Shepley Oval tomorrow for the fifth and final round of the AFL Women’s Under 18 Championships with the title already decided, but places up for grabs. South Australia will take back the trophy from Vic Metro who has held on for the past two seasons, as the pair have duopolised the success since the global pandemic.

>> STATE OF PLAY: 2026 AFLW Under 18s

PERMUTATIONS

With Queensland’s loss to the Allies last week, it means this potential title-decider became somewhat of a dead rubber with the South Australians guaranteed the title. Queensland can hold fourth spot but also slip to fifth if they lose and Western Australia get up over the Allies.

CHANGES

South Australia has resisted the urge to bring in Glenelg midfielder Georgie Fielder, and instead added another tall in Isabella Beaumont for defender Maya Fuller in an otherwise unchanged lineup. Queensland became the first side to go in unchanged and will lineup the same way as against the Allies.

MVP WATCH

South Australia’s is one of the most open in the race, with Under 16s MVP Emily Mableson and reigning MVP Emma Charlton right at the front of the queue. It is no surprise that the top five contenders have had big campaigns, though bottom-ager Lani Cocks has also had some big games, while from a little ‘Most Valuable Player’ perspective, few could argue defender Olivia Leslie would be in the mix given her shutdown roles.

For Queensland, the standout across three games has been top-ager Molly Ferguson who has not had a bad match to-date. She should finish strong and be the front-runner, while defender Stephanie Aguinaldo has also enjoyed a really strong carnival too. Most of the Maroons have been fairly even across the board.

MARQUEE MATCHUP

Emma Charlton (South Australia) vs. Molly Ferguson (Queensland)

There’s no shortage of potential matchups to watch, but these two tough nuts who also have the class on the outside, will provide plenty of crucial touches for their respective sides. Charlton brings as much defensive heat as she does offensive impact, with Ferguson similar, and the way she extracts herself out of trouble and picks the right option is terrific.

PREDICTION

South Australia has the form on the board, and title secured or not, it is hard to imagine the Croweaters won’t want to end the carnival with an undefeated record. Queensland has the talent and potential to win, but this will be their biggest challenge yet. Expect some great highlights from both teams.

PERMUTATIONS

The Allies are on the verge of their best ever finish at a national carnival, and depending on the last game of the series, will finish somewhere in the top four. A win, and a defeat to Vic Metro would see the Allies leap into second spot, but a loss to the Sandgropers could see the Allies slip back to fourth, while also relegating Queensland to fifth. That would be huge for WA though, moving up to third after a rough start in game one.

CHANGES

The Allies have brought back Jordan Davis in exchange for bottom-ager Evie Henley, while another Murray Bushrangers prospect in Charlie Gibson comes in, as does NT product Lakhyah Hill. Two other NT talents in Kayla Ilett and Peggy Rock make way.

For Western Australia, some speed in the front half returns with Mel Grage and Tiama Collard added to the lineup alongside Rikisha Nannup – after that knock against Vic Metro three weeks back – Sienna Lilly, Shaya Yarran, Maya Walsh and Zaide Wilson meaning seven changes all up. The seven outs include match-winner from last week Caitlin Boss, as well as Lucy Gilbey, Marley Kelman, Tahlia Head, Makaela Grau, Miley Hynes and Jasmine Giles.

MVP WATCH

It will be a fascinating one for the Allies, with bottom-ager Matilda Lange a huge chance given her consistency across all three games. Zoe Curry missed the first match, but has been amongst the top couple the last two, while Swans Academy wing Frances Walsh would have to be in the mix as well. For Western Australia, the clear top two are Cara Dziegielewski and Mia Carlshausen, with the National Academy members in the top two or three each match.

MARQUEE MATCHUP

Matilda Lange (Allies) vs. Lexi Strachan (Western Australia)

The potential pick one next year has been enormous at her bottom-age carnival and will want to finish off on a high here against National Academy member Lexi Strachan who has got better each match. After an uncharacteristic quiet game one, Strachan built into game two and was best-on in game three against Vic Country, so she is primed for another big one here. Both as absolute bulls at the coalface with some explosiveness out of the contest, and the head-to-head could be the contest of the day if they do go head-to-head.

PREDICTION

So many changes across both sides makes it tricky, though the Allies showed what they can do by knocking off Queensland last week. On paper they should get up, but the Sandgropers are coming off a rest, and arguably have their strongest team of the carnival lining up now Collard is back, so will give it a real shake.

PERMUTATIONS

Vic Metro’s title chances came to an end when Queensland lost to the Allies, meaning even if they win, they will lose to South Australia on head-to-head after everything is said and done. A win should see Metro finish second given the percentage advantage over the Allies, though a loss could see them slip to third if the Allies do get up. Unfortunately Vic Country will finish last regardless of outcome, but will be keen to get a win over the arch-rivals.

CHANGES

Vic Country has named an extended squad for the clash, with an additional three inclusions from the loss to Western Australia. Late outs from last week in Lily Milner and Scarlett Marsh are set to return, as is National Academy ruck Sophie White and over-ager Issy Boulton, while bottom-age forward Annie Clish makes her Vic Country Under 18s debut. Tall Amelia Hamod and contested ball-winner Lila Evans are the two confirmed outs at this stage.

Vic Metro has wheeled the changes, making six all up only second to Western Australia. Pick one contender Bailee Martin is back, but Metro will be without fellow National Academy member Brylee Anderson. Returning to the side after earlier matches are Tayla Olivieri and Maya Duane who will add plenty to the front half, while Alli Allen adds toughness to the back half. Western Jets-aligned Aluk Kuol Mon makes her Under 18s debut. Alongside Anderson, Bridie Neale misses out alongside Jacinta Eteuati, Luella Hall, Cleo Barbakas and Scarlett Bown.

MVP WATCH

Vic Country’s seems the most straight forward of any state with Ava Bilyk arguably best-on for her state in every match. She will no doubt finish off strong, with the Under 16s MVP being a constant for the ‘Big V’ as many of her other top-age teammates either missed a game or were rotated through a range of positions.

For Vic Metro, it might be the trickiest one to predict of any state. Emily Rankin and Isabella Mazzei have great cases and will likely be in the top considerations, while Addison West and Maddison Meagher have also had really eye-catching performances. If there was one state that needed to wait until the end of game four to decide, it’s Metro.

MARQUEE MATCHUP

Gabrielle Mehrmann (Vic Country) vs. Bailee Martin (Vic Metro)

Who could forget the performance Gabrielle Mehrmann put in for Dandenong Stingrays against Martin’s Oakleigh Chargers in the Talent League Girls preliminary final last year. Mehrmann kept Martin to just one goal for the first time in the season, and helped book her side’s spot in the grand final. She will likely get the job again given that experience, and while quelling Martin takes more than one, Mehrmann has shown she is up to the task. After missing last week and being contained by Heidi Ireland in game two, Martin will be out for a big performance in her last AFLW Under 18s match.

PREDICTION

Vic Metro is the stronger team on paper, and that has shown throughout the national carnival. Vic Country is a side that is difficult to beat easily, but just have that slight less class. What they do have in spades is competitiveness though, so Metro can not afford to drop off, or Country will punish them. The sides know each other so well, which usually is a great equaliser for these contests. You have to tip Metro, but Country will want to get a win on the board.