TWO RISING Victorian teams are on the hunt to reach a preliminary final with Hawthorn hoping to go one better than its straight sets exit last season, while Carlton will hope to keep its first post-season run under coach Matthew Buck going with Brisbane the awaiting opponent.

IN A NUTSHELL

Date: Saturday, November 15
Venue: Ikon Park
Time: 7:15pm AEDST
Result: Winner goes an away preliminary final, loser is eliminated

SEASON DETAILS

LAST TIME THEY MET

2025 | Round 22 | Hawthorn 3.12 (30) def. Carlton 2.10 (22)

In a blustery Saturday night, Hawthorn ground past Carlton in Frankston by eight points where accuracy was a tough goal to accomplish. The sides had 27 scoring shots between them, but in the end, the extra goal and chances got the Hawks over the line in just the second round of the season. That day, Lucy Wales (19 disposals, five marks, 11 hitouts and three clearances) was superb in the ruck, while Tilly Lucas-Rodd and Bates were their industrious selves. Harriet Cordner clunked 10 marks, had a team-high 414 metres gained and 22 disposals as a rock in defence, while skipper Abbie McKay finished with 27 touches, five tackles and four clearance in the loss.

TEAM HEAD-TO-HEAD STATS

CHANGES

Carlton is in red-hot form and has opted not to make a change, while the Hawks have been able to crucially bring back skipper Emily Bates who comes into the team alongside Hayley McLaughlin and Sophie Butterworth. Unfortunately both Emily Everist and Kaitlyn Ashmore are out injured, while Nat Exon was omitted.

KEY PLAYERS

Perhaps still underrated, Hawthorn not having Wales is a big loss for their premiership chances, even with Mackenzie Eardley and now Jess Vukic holding the fort. The two developing undersized talls have a tough task against Carlton’s strong duo of Breann Harrington and Jess Good and breaking even in that category can go a long way to victory.

Carlton is no slouch in the middle either with skipper McKay averaging five clearances this season, and could be one the Hawks look to quell. Mimi Hill, Keeley Sherar and one of this season’s revelations in Dayna Finn all provide great run through there, while the young Hawks will be pleased to have Bates back. Eliza West does plenty of the heavy lifting, but Jasmine Fleming, Laura Stone and Daisy Flockart are powerful runners.

Despite their age, Darcy Vescio has played such vital roles this season, and can run off half-back or go forward, and remains one of the competition’s best ball users. They and Lucas-Rodd provide plenty of movement for their respective sides, while Jenna Richardson and Cordner are the key posts who will quell and opponent and still use the ball well out of the back half.

PREDICTION

Hawthorn deserve to be favourites based on the season, but it is hard to deny Carlton’s best is very good and the Hawks are down a number of troops. It would be a shame to see the brown and gold go out in straight sets two years in a row given how well their home and away season has gone, so there is extra motivation. It all comes down to the midfield if the Hawks can shark the Blues’ taps and get it forward. Expect it to be a lower scoring, tough contest. Hawthorn by three points.