THERE is no turning back for the loser out of West Adelaide and Norwood, with fourth spot on the line for the winner. Sturt is intently watching what happens there, though the Double Blues face the Eagles simultaneously in a deadline day spectacular. In the other early match, Glenelg will look to jump back into second spot – even if just temporarily – when it takes on wooden spooners North Adelaide.

FORM

Three weeks ago it looked as if Norwood would cruise into finals and potentially push for a double chance, having drawn with top of the table Glenelg and beaten both South Adelaide and Central District. A fortnight and losses to Eagles and Sturt later, and suddenly the final round match with West Adelaide is a virtual elimination final. The Bloods kept their dream alive with a win over Eagles last week, but must win here and stay ahead of Sturt to make finals.

HEAD-TO-HEAD

West Adelaide: 5
Norwood: 10
Draw: 1

These two sides have a long and detailed history that includes two finals clashes and two head-to-heads each season bar 2019. Norwood has won double the matches against West Adelaide than vice-versa, including four of the last five. However earlier this year in Round 7 it was West Adelaide who spoiled the Redlegs’ party at home, winning by nine points at Coopers Stadium. Strangely, the Bloods are yet to win against Norwood at Hisense in three attempts.

TEAMS

West Adelaide:

B: Lucy Boyd (2), Jess Chyer (18)
HB: Tiana Fernandez (20), Madi Russell (1), Grace McNicol (21)
C: Emma Kilpatrick (27), Zoe Venning (9), Olivia Smith (6)
HF: Lucy Waye (28), Chloe Tonkin (14), Ruby Ballard (22)
F: Jemma Ellis (19), Nicole Hooper (11)
R: Tess Huxtable (25), Asha Dufour (15), Illish Ross (60)
INT: Jessica Macolini (13), Emma Chapman (23), Ella Maxwell (29), Emily Mableson (44), Sarah Campbell (47), Georgie Pater (26), Molly Petersen (28), Nicola Biagi (40)

Norwood:

B: Sophie Arkun (43), Nicola Burns (23)
HB: Sarah Branford (9), Charli Hazelhurst (39), Charlotte Nenke (44)
C: Adrienne Davies (8), Jade Halfpenny (22), Tahlita Buethke (1)
HF: Amelia Rusden (10), Kiana Lee (28), Shai Hiscock (13)
F: Emma Clark (7), Mykaela Walker (35)
R: Rosie Boon (46), Sophie Armitstead (36), Stephanie Simmonds (17)

INT: Kate Alexander (61), Coby Morgan (2), Candice Belbin (26), Elle Lineage (50), Tesharna Maher (14)

CHANGES

West Adelaide has not made any forced changes heading into the do-or-die clash, with a trio of talented stars returning to the lineup. Midfielder Jess Macolino returns alongside teenagers Lucy Boyd and Chloe Tonkin who will provide an aerial presences up respective ends. The Redlegs have also only been forced to make one change with Lana Schwerdt unavailable, and she has been replaced by fellow midfielder Tesharna Maher.

AFLW DRAFT WATCH

With Boyd and Tonkin returning to the side, West Adelaide’s full complement of State Academy members are in action, with Emma Kilpatrick having a great game on teh wing last week and kicking a nice goal. Asha Dufour always finds plenty of the ball, while the clean hands of Ruby Ballard and composure of Emily Mableson stands out of the field.

Norwood winger Coby Morgan was ultra-impressive in Round 13, and she will again be one to watch in the final round. Bottom-ager Charli Hazelhurst will undoubtedly have a big match in defence once again, while ruck Kate Alexander will continue her development.

STATS THAT MATTER

West Adelaide has struggled to get enough inside 50s to really convert winning scores this season, but have been good defensively at limiting opponents. The Redlegs are even better – ranking second for least scores conceded, while third on offence. Norwood is 10-1 when leading at half-time and 0-2 when trailing, while West Adelaide is 6-2 and 0-5 respectively, which paints a picture of how a strong first half is crucial.

PREDICTION

A genuine 50/50 contest where Norwood’s best has been better this season, but West Adelaide are rarely ever blown away, meaning this will be a tight contest. The Redlegs have held fourth spot for the longest most recently and should have the edge, but being at Hisense Stadium means the crowd will be in the Bloods’ favour.

FORM

North Adelaide might be finishing the season with the wooden spoon, but the Roosters have the chance to take a scalp on the way out, and deny Sturt a finals spot. The Double Blues will no doubt have the livestream of the Norwood-West Adelaide game up as they need to win and hope the Bloods get up narrowly to make finals. The Double Blues looked dead and buried a few weeks back but keep finding a way. North Adelaide is a danger, playing great footy of late and picking up a couple of wins, making this an enthralling contest.

HEAD-TO-HEAD

Sturt: 3
North Adelaide: 9

North have a heavily fancied head-to-head against the Double Blues, with the Roosters’ highest ever score of 14.9 (93) coming against the Double Blues back in 2018. That was in Sturt’s first season though, and after North won the seven clashes between the sides, Sturt has won three of the past five, including the last two. Like the earlier match, in a strange twist, Sturt is also yet to beat North at Unley Oval.

TEAMS

Sturt:

B: Lily Whitcombe (24), Sarah Wallace (37)
HB: Sophie Thredgold (17), Hannah Prenzler (20), Isabella Drew (28)
C: Claudia Edmonds (22), Kate Harris (23), Molly Fletcher (31)
HF: Georgia Swan (3), Millie McCarthy (1), Monique Bessen (16)
F: Summer Ross (42), Amy Brooks-Birve (44)
R: Jasmin Fejo (36), Alisha Gepp (15), Isobel Kuiper (2)
INT: Grace Powell (11), Winnie Thornquest (25), Ruby Cunningham (5), Tahlia Walker (18), Jaimee Wittervan (35), Georgia King (55), Gemma Grivell (13), India Rasheed (6)

North Adelaide:

B: Bailey Murray (3), Ella Metcalfe (40)
HB: Laela Ebert (9), Dakota Kendall (57), Zara Molloy (12)
C: Lauren Gauci (35), Julia Clark (33), Tayla Gordon (23)
HF: Lauren Hoffmann (45), Jess Edwards (2), Brianna Arthur (2)
F: Ella Quinn (14), Amber Ward (24)
R: Indi Buckskin-James (19), Aprille Crooks (10), Djimila Totham (30)
INT: Libby Taylor (50), Kristi Harvey (5), Laura Niejalke (16), Lara Harding (27), Sasha Hardin (3), Amalie Innes (11),  Ruby Hancock (58), Jasmine Dallimore (53)

CHANGES

Sturt will be thrilled to welcome back AFLW Academy member India Rasheed for the match after her stint with the Academy in Melbourne. She is among three ins with forward Georgia King and potential debutant out of Hahndorf, Gemma Grivell. The Roosters meanwhile will be without key defender Sarah Steele-Park who is unavailable, as is Zoe Perry with a knee injury. They do regain top-age star Laela Ebert after her concussion protocols ended to play one more game for the Roosters.

AFLW DRAFT WATCH

Ebert’s return is a key one for the Roosters and is the only State Academy member in the red and white for the final round. Mature-ager Aprille Crooks continues to have an impact at the level as well, while forward Tayla Gordon can impact up there or off a wing.

Sturt’s duo of Rasheed and Monique Bessen are reunited once again, while defender Sophie Thredgold have provided some great rebound off half-back and Edwina Thornquest has played at both ends of the ground this season.

STATS THAT MATTER

Sturt will be looking to take advantage around the stoppages where the Double Blues rank second (28.4 per game) compared to North Adelaide last (22.1). The Roosters do find plenty of the ball – something in direct contrast to Sturt – and use it well, though the Bays are better at creating scoring chances and converting scores than the Roosters.

PREDICTION

Given what’s on the line and the loss of Steele-Park, Sturt is likely to take home the chocolates. A homeground advantage to-boot, the Double Blues know how critical this game is, and what they need to do to finish fourth. North has been strong of late, but did get blown away in the second half against South a fortnight ago.

FORM

Like North Adelaide, Woodville-West Torrens has the potential to derail Glenelg’s finals campaign with a win here. While the Bays are guaranteed a top three finish, a loss would see them miss the double chance, and have to travel to either Noarlunga or Elizabeth in the second week of finals. If they can reverse their recent form and get up, second spot is up for grabs for Glenelg, with the top two facing off.

HEAD-TO-HEAD

Woodville-West Torrens: 3
Glenelg: 8

Glenelg holds the wood over the Eagles from 11 encounters where Woodville-West Torrens has only won three times. Glenelg has won both matches at Maughan Thiem Kia Oval, and five of the past six matches. Earlier this season, the Bays got up by 13 points back in Round 7.

TEAMS

Woodville-West Torrens:

B: Audrey Holt (10), Christina Leuzzi (19)
HB: Popi Gikas (2), Imogen Trengove (22), Annie Falkenberg (8)
C: Amie Blanden (12), Sophie Zuill (24), Poppy Waterford (1)
HF: Grace Martin (7), Rosette Zerella (32), Sophie Whitwell (42)
F: Klaudia O’Neill (18), Mikayla Cavallaro (4)
R: Leah Cutting (26), Lucy Moore (15), Marlie Fiegert (30)
INT: Chantelle Mitchell (5), Ashleigh Forbes (40), Bianca Portaro (3), Brianna Walling (13), Cher Waters (20), Zahlia Niemann (18), Julia Watson (51), Zoe MacGill-Rankin (41)

Glenelg:

B: Lauren Edwards (34), Alex Walker (24)
HB: Ellen Tyminski (18), Marie Martino (15), Tamsyn Morriss (12)
C: Madi Freeman (2), Violet Patterson (6), Mel Hinge (17)
HF: Sam Franson (5), Jordan Horne (11), Grace Duffy (10)
F: Jess Searle (23), Shay’Lee Dayman (4)
R: Alex Pearce (30), Jo Miller (32), Matilda Wilmore (19)
INT: Renee Wurfel (3), Kayla Robran (60), Goergie Fielder (59), Aleesha Robran (57), Eloise Mackereth (9), Alice Bradley (21), Ash Dyer (1), Jorja Eldridge (28)

CHANGES

The Eagles have only made one forced change with Ashley Baker unavailable, but they get to recall Brianna Walling and Grace Martin as key players who can impact in the forward half, as well as youngster Zahlia Niemann and potential debutant Zoe Macgill-Rankin.

Glenelg will be relieved to bring back ruck Shay’Lee Dayman for the huge clash, as well as State Academy members Violet Patterson and Eloise Mackereth. Ash Dyer and Lauren Edwards are also among the inclusions, with a trio of outs for the Bays in Alana Baker, Kiahni Russell and Lucy Armitage.

AFLW DRAFT WATCH

Martin and Patterson returning for their respective sides will add hardness and class to the lineup, while the Eagles have Klaudia O’Neill up forward and Lucy Moore through midfield who have been in great form. Top-ager Bianca Portaro and bottom-ager Imogen Trengove have also been contributing nicely for the Eagles.

Glenelg regains its firepower up front with Mackereth returning, while the defensive pressure of Matilda Wilmore – who spent significant time on-ball last week – and the class and upside of Georgie Fielder will add to the Bays’ lineup.

STATS THAT MATTER

Glenelg generates the second most scoring shots in the competition, but is the second least accurate, while the Eagles are the opposite in both counts. These two sides are ranked first and second in total inside 50s, so the accuracy for the Eagles might tip in their favour, though the Bays always get a lot of chances. They are also the clear top two tackling teams so expect a contested battle.

PREDICTION

Another tough game to call that could go either way. The Bays at full-strength would get the win, but still missing their best midfielder (Jessica Bates) and best intercept defender (Poppy Scholz) makes it tough. The Eagles are more than keen to spoil the party and want to finish on a high at home, but expect it to come right down to the wire.