Preview | AFLW Round 5a: Derby opens early start

AN early start to Round 5 of the AFL Women’s – due to the men’s grand final on Saturday – sees six of the nine matches played before the weekend even hits. In a two-part round preview, we will take a look at the first five matches of the round – Thursday and Friday daylight matches – with the remaining four game previews to come tomorrow.

  • Team
  • West Coast
  • Fremantle

FORM

West Coast enters the Western Derby having won its last match against GWS GIANTS, but is yet to gain the consistency, having lost the previous two matches, and now has a 2-2 record to-date. Fremantle’s injuries have got the better of the Dockers, following two forgettable losses in the opening fortnight, before a hard-fought three-point defeat to the Western Bulldogs, and holding on to draw with Carlton last round.

WHERE IT’S WON

Neither of these teams has set the world on fire across the board, but the big differentials come in the marks and tackles department. The Eagles are plus-nine for the season in marks compared to the Dockers’ minus-49, while the Dockers are plus-36 and plus-19 for tackles and tackles inside 50 respectively, compared to the Eagles’ minus-17 and zero. As the teams have struggled to get their hands on the ball, the team that can control the game on their terms – West Coast using its run and Fremantle cracking in at the coalface – will likely get on top in match.

TEAM NEWS

West Coast announced it would have another debutant for this round in Swan Districts’ midfielder-forward Abbygail Bushby who replaces the injured Jessica Sedunary in the only change, while for the Dockers, Roxanne Roux returns for the injured Madeleine Scanlon.

KEY PLAYERS

Fremantle fans saw just how important Gabby O’Sullivan was returning to the side last round, and if she and mature-age draftee Megan Kauffman can continue their form, then they are a danger. Kiara Bowers continues to build and should get ahold of the Eagles midfield, though the likes of Emma Swanson and Isabella Lewis will step up. Top young star Ella Roberts gets better by the week.

PREDICTION

The match looms as a fascinating one, with no doubt preseason expectations heavily weighted in Fremantle’s favour, however form is on West Coast’s side. Given Fremantle’s last fortnight, and the difficult next few weeks, a lot of emphasis will be around closing out this game and recording its first win, so expect the Dockers to do that.

  • Team
  • Geelong
  • St Kilda

FORM

Two of the more improved sides in the competition who are also difficult to read lock horns down the highway at Kardinia Park. Geelong won its first two matches against Richmond and Fremantle, and have since dropped games to the more difficult opponents in Collingwood and North Melbourne. However, St Kilda’s two wins came against the bottom two sides in the competition, before being competitive against Melbourne, then going down to Gold Coast.

WHERE IT’S WON

Both sides have been able to generate inside 50s and use the ball well, with the Saints ahead in terms of marks (plus-38 to plus-15) with the tackles inside 50s (plus-35 to minus-eight) and bounces (plus-12 to minute-five) the other large discrepancies. Geelong has enjoyed controlling the ball with a massive plus-88 in uncontested possessions (fourth in the competition) and plus-29 in contested possessions (fifth).

TEAM NEWS

St Kilda announced that first round draftee and Northern Territory talent J’Noemi Anderson would be making her debut in the match. The Saints also brought in Clara Fitzpatrick, with both Lucy Burke and Rosie Dillon out of the side. Geelong made three unforced changes, with debutant Brooke Plummer coming in with Kate Darby and Madeline Keryk, while Mia Skinner, Georgia Clarke and Kalani Scoullar all make way.

KEY PLAYERS

Geelong’s midfield and defence have been strong this season with the likes of Georgie Prespakis and Amy McDonald controlling the on-ball brigade, and Meghan McDonald a reliable source of intercept in defence. Olivia Fuller has been in good form but has a massive task up against new Saints recruit Erin McKinnon, while the likes of Bianca Jakobsson and Kate Shierlaw up respective ends have been important players St Kilda.

PREDICTION

At home, Geelong is likely to grab the four points here and hand the Saints their third straight loss. While St Kilda’s had more of a free-flowing scoring ability, Geelong’s defence has been tried and tested against some of the league’s best, so the Cats should be able to shut down the Saints’ offence and generate drive going back the other way.

  • Team
  • Western Bulldogs
  • North Melbourne

FORM

The red-hot Western Bulldogs face their greatest challenge yet as the ninth placed North Melbourne will look to upstage the unbeaten Dogs at Punt Road. The Bulldogs have passed every test set for them, though the clash against North Melbourne looms as the first big one in the Dogs’ season. North might be outside the eight with a 2-2 record, but it would be folly not to believe the Kangaroos are every bit a premiership contender, with the two losses coming against reigning grand finalists, Adelaide and Melbourne.

WHERE IT’S WON

It is hard to fault what the Western Bulldogs have done this season, looking good across most categories. They have won more ball than their opponents compared to any other team, with a massive plus-142 in disposals, whilst also using their handball game to great advantage and being one of the better using sides throughout the season. They are far and away the best hitout side, and are ranked third for clearances as well, whilst being first in both contested and uncontested possessions. The Roos stats are harder to judge given the level of opposition has been significantly harder than the Dogs, but they do bring plenty of heat compared to their opponents with a plus-23 in tackles. They will want to lift their work around the ball and particularly outside the contest against an in-form opposition.

TEAM NEWS

North Melbourne just has the potential of Amy Smith returning from a concussion, while late out last week Elisabeth Georgostathis was pushing hard to get back into the side having had a sore quad in the lead-up to the match against Hawthorn.

KEY PLAYERS

Alice Edmonds has recorded the most hitouts in Season 7 with 29.5 per game, leading the Dogs to be number one in the competition for the stat. Along with the ever-consistent onballers Ellie Blackburn and Kirsty Lamb, the Dogs have the tenacity to take it up to the famed Roos’ midfield that includes former Dog Kim Rennie, equal third highest clearance winner Jasmine Garner, and natural ball-winner Ash Riddell. A fascinating battle would be Rylie Wilcox and Taylah Gatt able to throwback to their NAB League and Under 18 Championship days, going head-to-head on the wing.

PREDICTION

Statistically the signs point to Western Bulldogs, and this is the game that will determine if the Dogs are a genuine title contender this season. In saying that, the Roos are just able to match it with anyone, and if the Dogs do have a lapse, the Roos will pounce. Either way, expect it to be a tight tussle.

  • Team
  • Collingwood
  • Essendon

FORM

After three consecutive wins to start the season, Collingwood sunk to its first defeat at the hands of Adelaide last round, to be 3-1 heading into its first ever match with men’s rival, Essendon. The Bombers are 2-2, but the two losses have been by one and two points to Carlton and Richmond respectively, whilst ticking off victories over Hawthorn and West Coast. The Magpies will be another step up for the Bombers here, right in the heart of the city at Olympic Park Oval.

WHERE IT’S WON

Both teams have done well at controlling the ball this season, with positive numbers across the board for disposals, kicks and uncontested possessions. They also rank third (Collingwood) and fourth (Essendon) for least turnovers, with the Bombers scoring 48.3 per cent from their inside 50s more than their opposition. The Magpies have been able to average 31 more marks than their opponents, ranking them fourth in the comp, as well as 26 more tackles inside 50, third in the league.

TEAM NEWS

Collingwood announced it would be without Aishling Sheridan for the next two to four weeks, having sustained a knee injury in the Magpies’ Round 4 loss to Adelaide. As the only player on the injury list, the Pies are travelling pretty well heading into the match. A banged up Jaimee Lambert continues to battle away despite repeated ankle issues. With Sheridan out, it could open the door for Charlotte Taylor to make her debut having featured on the emergency list each week, or the Pies could recall Lauren Brazzale. Essendon is equally and healthy with just Jacqui Vogt – who picked up a suspension last game – and Bella Ayre unavailable.

KEY PLAYERS

Star onballer Madison Prespakis will be looking for a big day out after being controlled by the Richmond midfield last week, though Stephanie Cain will provide some important dash for the red sash. The Bombers forwards will find the going much tougher against a staunch Collingwood defence, with Bonnie Toogood likely to have Stacey Livingstone for company. Lauren Butler and Ruby Schleicher are among the in-form Collingwood players as well.

PREDICTION

Collingwood will be hungry to bounce back after its loss to Adelaide and should have too much balance for Essendon. The Bombers, whose forwardline has been impressive this season, will find the going far tougher against a Collingwood defence that limited reigning premiers Adelaide to just two goals from 35 inside 50s.

  • Team
  • Sydney
  • Hawthorn

FORM

History will be made in some way, shape or form in this game, with the two expansion sides coming into Round 5 with a predictable 0-4 record. Both teams have undeniable young talent on their list, and certainly give it a crack, but do not quite have what it takes to match it with the established teams just yet. Now the two sides will battle it out in what realistically could determine the battle for the wooden spoon, though there is still the second half of the season to come.

WHERE IT’S WON

Unsurprisingly when teams are 0-4, there are not too many statistical measures where they have stood out. Hawthorn does have a plus-46 in tackles, which ranked the brown and gold third overall in the league. Otherwise though, it has not been pretty reading, with the teams struggling to get their hands on the ball, and then not being able to capitalise when inside 50. The Hawks are marginally better across the board, though are minus-48 in hitouts which is where the Swans may be able to get first hands on it. When it comes to the other ares though, the Swans are ranked 18th in disposals, kicks, inside 50 efficiency, contested possessions, uncontested possessions, marks and tackles, so there is still plenty of work to be done.

TEAM NEWS

Sydney will be hoping young star Cynthia Hamilton can return from missing Round 4 after going into concussion protocols, while Aliesha Newman (ankle last week) and Ruby Sargent-Wilson are a week away with respective injuries. Hawthorn did not pick up any more specific injuries, with those out already missing considerably more time.

KEY PLAYERS

The return of Montana Ham was a welcome one for the Swans, with the star onballer having a big game against Port Adelaide and earning the Rising Star nomination. Ham will be able to cross paths with best friend and former Western Jets captain Charlotte Baskaran, as well as Vic Metro teammate Jasmine Fleming. Both teams have some exceptional youth, with Ally Morphett and Lauren Szigeti also playing well, and the likes of Tilly Lucas-Rodd and Kaitlyn Ashmore keys to the game.

PREDICTION

Given the match is both side’s best chance of a victory, no doubt there will be plenty of heat on the contest. Hawthorn have shown some marginally more consistent signs this season so should be tipped to win, though Sydney’s best – which it has shown in patches – could cause the Hawks trouble.

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